“Gentleman, this is the situation.” Pavel Saratov looked around the packed control room at his officers, and, of course, at General Esenin. “Above us, P-3’s are searching. They cannot find us because we are under an inversion layer, a layer we will probably leave in a few miles. Still, we are deep, traveling slowly, and they would have to go right over us to get a reading on their magnetic gear.”
Saratov certainly had their attention. “Ahead of us about thirty miles is an enemy warship, pinging regularly. That warship is probably a large destroyer or frigate, carrying one or two helicopters equipped with dipping sonar. We will hear the helicopters as we get closer. Somewhere near that warship is probably one, perhaps even two or more submarines. They are lying deep and quiet, listening for us. I suspect one is on the far side of the destroyer, but it could be anywhere. “I have considered all our options. If we go in under a freighter, the echo ranging will detect us. No doubt that is why they are doing it. “We face the classic battery-boat dilemma. If we go in quickly, we will prematurely drain our batteries and need to snorkel in Sagami Bay, which would be suicidal. If we go in slowly, trying to save battery energy, we will expend lots of time and we’ll be at the mercy of the tides. Three knots will just hold us in place; then when the tide pushes us, we will get a mere six knots. Alas, that will have to do. “Our only choice is to be bold. When the tide turns in two hours, we will close the destroyer and shoot two torpedoes set to home on noise. They will probably put decoys in the water. We may get a hit; then again, we may not. Regardless, the confusion factor will be high. That, I hope, will give us an opportunity to slip into Sagami Bay.”
“You really have no plan,” Esenin said, frowning in disapproval. “You may say that, sir,” Saratov admitted. “We can only take advantage of opportunities that come our way. The enemy must positively identify every target before they shoot. We have no such handicap. Everyone we hear is the enemy. On the other hand, we can only do what the battery lets us do.” No one said anything. “We go so slowly, yet time is critical,” Saratov said. “We must get into the bay before other antisubmarine forces arrive and join the search. Once inside, we must find our fault and settle onto the bottom. “Are there any questions?”
They stared at him with drawn, dirty, haggard faces dripping sweat, although the temperature was not warm. Whatever they had been expecting, this wasn’t it. “General Esenin.”
“What if you fail to torpedo the destroyer?”
“Then, sir, we will both get to experience our very first depth charging. I hear that it is a religious experience.”
“You have balls, Saratov. I’ll say that for you.”
The michmen and naval officers exchanged glances, trying to keep their faces deadpan. Saratov thought he knew what they were thinking, but with Esenin standing there … “Do you intend to go up and use the periscope, Captain?”
“We must shoot from this depth.”
He bent over the chart table with the XO and navigator beside him. “Our torpedoes have a range of ten miles. We must get within that range to shoot, but not so close that we are detected. With the destroyer’s screw noises and bearing change, we should be able to get an idea of his course and speed, and therefore his relative position and range. Navigator, you and Sonar start a plot. What I think he is doing is circling in a racetrack pattern. I suspect our best maneuver will be to approach that pattern from the seaward side and shoot when the torpedoes have the shortest distance to run. “XO, let’s flood four of the tubes and open the outer doors. The doors make a bit of noise coming open.”
“Aye aye, Captain.”
Saratov donned the sonar earphones and got back on his stool. He checked the clock.
“Mr. President, the intel analyst is in the limo outside.”
David Herbert Hood made his excuses, shook hands with the important people at the head table, and headed for the hotel lobby. He shook some more hands there, then got into the limo for the ride to the White House. The analyst turned out to be a young woman, and she was obviously flustered. She was wearing jeans and tennis shoes. “Mr. President.”
“This is Deborah Buell, Mr. President.”
“Glad to meet you. Sorry to call you away from a Saturday at home.”
The analyst assured him there was no problem. “A while back, you wrote a summary that said that Japan may have nuclear weapons. Do you remember that?”
“Oh, yes, sir. That was several months ago.”
“Why did you think that was a possibility?”
“My section does economic analyses of foreign economies. It seemed to me that a significant percentage of Japan’s government spending could not be accounted for in the normal ways. Basically, I thought they were spending a lot of money off-budget. So I began looking at other sectors of the economy where the money could be going. The high-tech engineering firms have been doing very well in Japan for years, and it’s hard to see why — the civilian products that they should be producing don’t seem to be there. Anyway, to make a long story short, it seemed to me that Japan might have several major black weapons programs. They have the technical wherewithal to make bombs, if they wanted them. So I wrote in the summary that they may have these weapons.” A black program was one so secret the government did not acknowledge its existence. “What did your superiors think of your reasoning?”
“They thought there was not enough evidence. Still, they reluctantly agreed to let me put it in the summary, labeled as a possibility.”
“Surely you’ve thought more about this since then?”
“Yes, sir. And I’ve done more research. I still can’t prove it.”
“But you stand by your assertion. It’s a possibility.”
“In my opinion, it is.”
“Ms. Buell, I appreciate you taking your time to chat about this. After the limo drops me, it can take you back to your car.”
She laughed nervously. “I’m glad someone reads those summaries, Mr. President. The people at the office think they go to the great file cabinet in the sky.”
“No doubt they do, Ms. Buell. But I read them first.”
“Mr. President, I don’t want to talk out of school, but there was an unsubstantiated rumor going around in the intelligence community earlier this summer that the Japanese had operational nukes. It was never more than a rumor and no one could ever verify who started it. Shortly after that, Japan invaded Siberia. It seems possible, to me anyway, that the Japanese started the rumor to discourage any thoughts the Russians might have about using nuclear weapons to defend themselves.”
The president gave the woman a long, hard look as he got out of the car. “Thank you,” he told her. As they walked the corridors of the White House, the president asked Innes, “What are the Japanese doing about that sub?”
“They have at least four airplanes and six surface ships hunting for it between its last known position and the entrance to Tokyo Bay. One of the naval types over there told our people that the Japanese are afraid of a Yokosuka refinery repeat. They don’t want another disaster like that on their hands.”
“What if it isn’t going to Tokyo Bay?”
“That’s what has them worried. They have everything they own in the water east of the Japanese islands looking for this sub. The submarine could be a red herring. The Russians could be about to do something spectacular off Vladivostok.”
“What does Abe say about this development?”
“He remarked to Ambassador Hanratty that if Russia still has nuclear weapons, they have lied to everyone for years.”
“That’s news?”
“He wants the United Nations to step in. Pass some sort of resolution promising the use of armed force against anyone who uses nuclear weapons. “Uh-huh.”
“And he wants the UN involved in Siberia. Basically, he repeated his demand that the UN give Japan a mandate to act as guardian of the native people, develop the place, and sell Siberian resources for world-market prices.”
“He’ll never get that,” the president said as he plopped into his chair behind his desk in the Oval Office. “He probably knows that. He’s just making his position clear.”
“So what do you think?”
