“Damn,” General Caldwell said in the silence that followed. “They’ve finally gone and done it.”
“They have indeed,” Buchalter said. “We know Pakistan has been working to develop a nuclear capability since 1972. It was believed that their research reactor facility outside of Islamabad had the potential for assembling warheads for the past several years. “Only a screwdriver away,” as they say.” He gave a wan smile. “Their test this morning confirms it.”
“Five kilotons,” Schellenberg said. “That’s not very big. Strictly tactical stuff.”
“Nuclear artillery shells … atomic warheads on Frog 7 missiles?”
Caldwell pointed out. “That’s plenty bad enough, Mr. Secretary, believe me.”
“It’s worse than that, gentlemen,” Dr. Montrose said. He carefully folded his hands on the table top before him. “The orbital sensors gave us quite precise data on the device, precise enough that we were able to make some educated guesses about its employment. The Derawar blast was almost certainly the field test of a nuclear trigger.”
The reactions of the men around the table ran the gamut from surprise to outright shock. “A trigger!” Hemminger said. “You mean-“
“For a thermonuclear device.” Montrose nodded. “Yes. The low-yield trigger is used to create the temperature and pressure necessary to induce nuclear fusion. They might well have the capability of manufacturing nuclear devices in the megaton range, a thousand times more powerful than the blast we detected this morning.”
“That’s ridiculous,” George Hall said. “You’re saying the Pakistanis are leaping straight to H-bombs and superpower status in one jump.
That’s just not possible!”
“I’m afraid it is,” Marlowe said, shaking his head. “We’ve been expecting this for years, you know. Our old friend Qaddafi has poured millions of dollars into Pakistan’s atomic research program since the seventies … and supplied them with uranium from his territorial acquisitions in Chad as well. The theory is simple enough. The hard part, as I understand it, is purely technical, separation and purification of the uranium and so on. They were bound to get it sooner or later.”
Hemminger pursed his lips. “I find the timing of this … this test somewhat coincidental. Anyone else here concur on that?”
Marlowe nodded. “My people are looking into that, but I think I can tell you the result now. Pakistan has probably had the capability to assemble a thermonuclear bomb for at least the past five years. It is possible they have been hiding the fact even from the Libyans … who, of course, would expect some return on their investment in the form of several complete warheads.”
George Hall shuddered. “The Libyans with nuclear weapons. God help us.”
“God help the world,” Buchalter said. A shiver ran down his spine. He remembered watching a televised interview with Qaddafi. Libya’s dictator had been insisting that had he possessed nuclear weapons, he would have used them to retaliate for the 1986 bombing of Tripoli and Benghazi by Navy and Air Force jets. “Wait a sec, Victor. You say they were hiding their capabilities from the Libyans?”
“Yes, sir.” He gave a dry chuckle. “Pakistan gets several billion dollars of aid from us every year. They know damn well they’re not likely to stay on the gravy train if they turn nukes over to a flake like Qaddafi. But the Indian attack may have changed things over there.
India is a thermonuclear power too, remember, has been since 1974.
Pakistan has its back up against the wall. They could do something … extreme.”
Hemminger’s eyes widened. “Are you suggesting that we could be looking at a nuclear war over there?”
“Mr. Secretary, we think that the detonation this morning was a test … and a warning. They did nothing to try to hide it. They set it off on the surface instead of underground, where the shock could have been blamed on an earthquake, or out at sea, where they could have denied any knowledge of it. We think that it was meant as a clear signal to the Indians: “Back off. We have nukes too.’”
“Will India press her attack?” Schellenberg asked. “Damn, they’re not suicidal!”
Marlowe studied his hands, folded before him. “Maybe not. But these two countries have been at each other since Partition in 1947. Islamic extremists have slaughtered Hindus living in Pakistan and waged a terrorist war in Kashmir, which is still officially Indian but predominantly Moslem. Slaughter has been answered with slaughter by Hindi extremists in India. New Delhi has accused Pakistan of interfering with Indian affairs, aiding rebels, spreading unrest, and preaching open revolution.
“We’re afraid that India might react to Pakistan’s warning in an … unexpected way. They have a population of nine hundred million to Pakistan’s ninety million … that’s ten to one, gentlemen. They have the eighth largest navy, the fifth largest air force, and the third largest army in the world. They might decide that they could end the Pakistan threat once and for all by replacing the government in Islamabad with one of their own choosing, just like they did with Bangladesh in 1971.”
“But, my God!” Hemminger said. “if they start tossing nukes at each other …”
“Pakistan’s only delivery system would be by air,” General Caldwell observed. “They bought thirty F-16 Falcons off of us a few years back.
They’d do the trick.”
“That’ll look good in the press,” Hall muttered aloud. “American-made planes nuke New Delhi!”
The DCI ignored the interruption. “Early indications are that the Indian air force is specifically hitting Pakistan’s offensive air capabilities,” Marlowe said. “Pakistan has suffered heavy losses already, possibly as high as forty percent. If India can knock out Pakistan’s air, Pakistan won’t have any way of delivering her bombs.
“Even if that doesn’t work out, the present Indian leadership might decide that the loss of a city or two would be worth it. There’s at least an even chance that the Indians will call the Pakistanis’ bluff.”
“God in heaven,” someone breathed softly.
Schellenberg nodded slowly. “When the antagonists are as unpredictable as Pakistan and India, anything is possible.”
“Nuclear war on the Indian subcontinent is unacceptable,” Buchalter said. He marveled at the calm way he said it, as though discussing weekend plans for golf. “I’ve already conferred with the President on this.” He shook his head slightly as he remembered the President’s anger.
Or was it fear?
“Damned right it’s unacceptable,” Caldwell said. “it would be opening the genie’s bottle. We’d never get the damned thing back in again.”
“Not to mention tens of millions of folks dying,” Hemminger said sarcastically.
Caldwell held up his hand. “Don’t get me wrong, sir. I’m not forgetting the casualties. But think of this. In all of history, there have been two, and only two, nuclear weapons dropped in wartime. We’ve managed to keep the lid on things ever since. Now some damned Third World country nukes a Third World neighbor. Suddenly people start thinking about using those nukes in their stockpiles. And those who don’t have them start looking for ways to join the club. Everything we’ve accomplished in holding back proliferation could be negated by a single attack.”
“It would be a nightmare,” Marlowe said. “A nightmare come to life.”
“How can the United States fit into this?” Hall asked. “I mean, like you said, Pakistan depends on us for aid. Maybe we could pull some strings.”
“Might work with Pakistan,” Buchalter said. “But not India. Especially now.”
“What do you mean, ‘especially now?’” Schellenberg asked.
Buchalter opened a folder and removed a sheet of paper. “This just came in from CBG-14,” he said. He glanced at Marlowe, who nodded. “Confirmed by NSA intercepts of Indian communications. Approximately four hours ago, one of our ships was fired on by an Indian sub, Our ship returned fire … and sank the submarine.”
“Oh, God, no,” the Secretary of Defense said. “Now India thinks we’ve already sided with Pakistan.”
“So much for our getting them to arrange an armistice,” Hall added.
“What about the Russians?” one of the Defense Secretary’s aides asked.
He held up two fingers, tightly crossed. “India and the former USSR have always been like that.”
Schellenberg shook his head. “It’s not that simple, son. India has pursued a policy of strict neutrality. What was the Soviet Union was India’s largest trading partner, and India has been one of Russia’s best sources of hard currency. India’s armed forces are mostly outfitted with Russian equipment, yeah, but with a few exceptions, India managed to steer clear of East-West politics. I doubt that the Russians exert that much influence over them, not if
