things stand with the United States.”
The map on the screen behind him changed. “So much for politics,” Aiken said. “What concerns us more at the moment is the military situation in Norway. Soviet troops officially crossed the borders in the early morning hours of June fifth. Bear in mind the presence of the commando forces prior to this, because they’ve had a significant impact upon the prosecution of the campaign so far. The attack was spearheaded by two front-line motor rifle divisions, the 45th and the 54th. These followed the lines of advance we always assumed they’d use, with the 54th violating Finnish neutrality in order to work its way behind the main lines of defense.”
Aiken took another sip of water as the slide changed to a close-up of northern Norway. “Front-line defense of Norway was in the hands of the so-called South Varanger Garrison, with a reserve force, the Finnmark Brigade, to provide rapid backup in case of trouble. The paralysis of the Norwegian government in the first few hours of the crisis caused delays in assembling the reserve formations. They had just dispersed after an earlier mobilization order, and the confusion did nothing to improve their situation.”
He jabbed at the map with a pointer. “Virtually the whole of the South Varanger Garrison and a substantial part of the Finnmark Brigade was surrounded and destroyed by Soviet forces here, at Tana, on the sixth.”
Another map showing the entire country appeared. “While this was happening, the Soviets were carrying out systematic attacks on other parts of the country as well. There are a few things to note … first, the fact that the Red Banner Northern Fleet sortied from the Barents Sea the day before the assassination. This could have been coincidence, of course, or a part of ongoing saber-rattling. But it is significant that the fleet was escorting a very large contingent of naval infantry and Spetsnaz troops. It hasn’t received much notice in the press, but the Soviets have shifted their shipbuilding program over to intensive production of amphibious vessels in the last few years, to go along with their carrier program. A very large portion of that sealift capability is currently in the Northern Fleet. When you add in merchant ships as auxiliary transports you can generate quite a formidable amphibious threat.”
“But do the Russians really have that much capacity for amphibious operations, Commander?” That was Commander Loren Scanlan, skipper of the Gridley. “I mean, sure, they can put together the ships, but they’ve never really focused on marines as a major combat arm, have they?”
“More than you might think, though we’re not certain of exact numbers,” Aiken responded with his usual caution. “Don’t forget, gentlemen, that ever since the end of the Cold War it has been common Soviet practice to assign fully functional motor rifle divisions to the navy as a way to get around the provisions of military reduction agreements, since so-called naval troops don’t count. And while you can’t turn an army division into an instant amphibious force capable of making opposed assaults, you can use them to reinforce strikes delivered by other means. Spetsnaz attacks, for instance, or parachute drops. They grab a likely piece of terrain, and these amphibious troops can come ashore and consolidate too damned fast for the defenders to react.”
The intelligence officer looked around the room as if expecting further comment, but none came. He cleared his throat and went on. “Air strikes on the first two days of the fighting accounted for well over half of the Norwegian air force. Norway has … or rather had about a hundred combat aircraft, mostly F-16s. They’ve put up a good fight, but the odds are just too much. Add the neutralization of several key airfields by commando attacks and runway cratering from missiles and bombs, and you can see the way things are headed. We estimate the Soviets will have virtual air supremacy in Scandinavia within another few days.
Tarrant scanned the officers for reactions to that. The CAG staff looked particularly grim, as well they might. With most of the Norwegian air force knocked out, carrier-based planes would be seriously out-matched in numbers. Even the vaunted Top Gun ten-to-one kill ratio might not be enough if Jefferson’s air wing had to go into battle.
“The final leg of the Soviet attack rested in air transport of sizable combat forces into secured positions in Oslo and Tromso,” Aiken went on. “Here again their commando and desant troops gave them a real edge. The move into Oslo was roughly comparable to the buildup of forces in Kabul during the opening stages of the Afghan war. Combined with amphibious landings at Bodo and Narvik, these operations badly disrupted the entire Norwegian coast. The long, thin nature of the country, with its poor terrain and limited road net, renders Norway vulnerable to this sort of divide-and-conquer technique.”
A new map came up, a close-up of central Norway around the city of Trondheim. “This is where the real blow fell, though, in the area called Trondelag. For the past six years it has been the site of a major U.S. Marine Prepositioning center. The equipment and supplies for a specially tasked U.S. Marine Expeditionary Brigade were located here, together with prepared runway facilities at Orland and Vaemes. On June sixth these were attacked by naval Spetsnaz, reinforced by naval infantry and airborne troops. Our best satellite reconnaissance indicates that Trondelag has been all but destroyed … and with it virtually every contingency plan the United States had for supporting Norway.”
“Christ,” someone said from the front row. Tarrant thought it was Commander Don Strachan, CO of the frigate Esek Hopkins. “Why don’t we just surrender now and be done with it? Or is there some good news buried in all of this mess?”
“The good news, such as it is, came on the seventh,” Aiken answered. “On that day a Soviet attempt to take the city of Bergen failed. Bergen was the one area not caught totally off guard by the war. The senior army man there, General Nils Lindstrom, managed to pull his troops into a tight perimeter line. By concentrating air cover and intensive SAM fire and triple-A, Lindstrom knocked out the airborne elements of a major Soviet drive on Bergen. It’s located in the southeastern end of the country … one of their biggest ports and naval bases, and near some major air bases as well. The city’s critical to both sides at this point, gentlemen. As long as it’s in friendly hands we have a point of reentry into Norway, and the Soviets know it. Everything boils down now to how long Lindstrom can hold out there.”
“Without effective air?” Stramaglia snorted. “The Russkies’ll pry them out of there inside a week.”
Aiken nodded. “That’s our estimation, Captain. At the moment they are overextended, but once they’ve consolidated their position they are sure to muster enough strength to threaten Bergen.”
“Thank you for your rundown, Commander,” Tarrant said, moving back toward the podium. The lights came up as Aiken took his seat in the front row. “Gentlemen, that’s the situation as it stands now … but there is one important addition Commander Aiken didn’t mention. Yesterday evening, the White House received a communique from the Soviet government reiterating their position that the conflict in Norway is a strictly local matter. In addition, they have declared that all foreign military vessels should stay clear of the Norwegian Sea in an area defined by the Greenland-Iceland-United Kingdom line, extended from the Scottish coast to Jutland. I believe the phrase they used was ‘to avoid accidental escalation of the current regional hostilities.’ In essence they are saying that any warship entering their exclusion zone is liable to come under attack.”
“But that undermines the whole principal of freedom of the seas,” the captain of the John A. Winslow, Commander Robert Jackson, said incredulously. “I mean, that was one of the things we were fighting for in the Indian Ocean, wasn’t it? Do the Russians really think we’d accept something like that?”
Tarrant spread his hands. “The Soviets have never understood our theory of seapower, Captain,” he said. “I doubt if they realize how critical this issue is to American strategic thinking. In any event, it seems to have hit home in Washington. The new orders I received last night call on us to take the battle group into the Norwegian Sea in direct opposition to the exclusion zone the Russians have laid down.”
“Then we’re going in to help Norway, Admiral?” Commander Bart Thompson of the frigate Stephen Decatur asked.
“Not yet, Captain,” Tarrant told him. “The Rules of Engagement are very clear. We’re to test the Russian determination to keep us out of the Norwegian Sea, but we only fire if fired upon. The decision to actively support Norway hasn’t been made yet.”
“Hell, there might not be a Norway if we don’t do something soon,” Captain Brandt said harshly. “Can’t they see that?”
Tarrant fixed him with a cold look. “We’re not talking about Saddam Hussein or the North Koreans this time, Captain,” he said in a quiet voice. “No matter how much things have changed since the Wall came down, these are still the Russians we’re up against this time around. If we push too hard, too fast, we could end up with nukes flying.”
There was a mutter of agreement around the room. Suddenly the specter of World War III was back among them, closer and more real than it had been since the face-off between Kennedy and Khrushchev. It was sobering to think where this confrontation in Scandinavia might lead.
