TO: CHARLES F. DURRELL, JR.
Assistant to the President for Emergency War Affairs
FROM: Winston Sajid
Chairman, Committee on Long-Term Effects
National Security Agency
DATE: 30 March 1992
SUBJ: 12th Report on Atmospheric Effects
Concurrent studies by U.S. and United Kingdom task forces suggest a continuing deterioration of stratospheric conditions.
Specifically, there has been an observed depletion or thinning of the ozone layer of the upper atmosphere. Studies conducted in the summer of 1988 have been used as a baseline measure. A full report on all aspects of atmospheric deterioration is complex, but for purposes of summary it can be reported that an overall depletion of approximately 14 percent has occurred in four years.
It must be emphasized that while a further depletion might be expected in future years, it is not possible at this time to project a statistical trend with any certitude. Such a trend is difficult to predict because (1) little data were collected for approximately 18 months following the war, until atmospheric studies were resumed by the U.K. and other Western European nations; and (2) such a dramatic change in ozone levels is unprecedented and existing mathematical models are not sophisticated enough to consider all the variables.
Data are presently being gathered to document the observed increases in skin cancers, increased propensities to skin burns and rashes, and the most significant ecological effects, such as the warming trends at the North and South poles, the disappearance of some subtropical vegetation, and the global depression in crop production.
At this time, the American-based U.K. atmospheric teams are preparing a series of high-altitude rocket surveys, as well as completing, with the University of Tokyo’s Atmospheric Research Laboratory, a multivariate computer model designed to calculate long-term ozonal changes.
The President will be informed as soon as this Agency has had a chance in the next six months to review the results of these studies.
CONFIDENTIAL
DECEMBER 7, 1992
On December 1, 1992, the Livermore National Laboratory completed a six-month effort to assess existing studies on the long-term radiation effects of the October 1988 war. Data from this study were then used to calculate the somatic and genetic effects that can be expected over the next 35 to 40 years. Using information from European and Japanese sources, the study was also able to assess long-term radiation effects on areas (1) outside of the United States affected by fallout, and (2) within the Soviet Union as a result of the American counterattack.
The Soviet attack in October 1988 was directed against three urban centers (New York, Washington, D.C., and San Antonio, Texas) and against the operational SAC bomber bases and ICBM fields located in four upper Central and Western states (Montana, Wyoming, North Dakota, and South Dakota). It is believed that some 300+ megatons (MT) of effective yield were realized in this attack. The Soviets employed a strategy against urban centers of detonating their weapons at a height of some 7,000 feet, which was clearly intended to heighten the range of destruction.
Against military targets they employed a mixed strategy of airbursts against airbases and groundbursts against hardened missile silos. Airbursts and groundbursts above cities appear to have averaged some 10 MT each.
It should be remembered that impacted areas remain highly radioactive for a period of time, although considerable radioactive decay will occur within the first 30 days. Fallout, however, continues over an extended period of time. While lethal doses of radiation may not occur, sublethal doses have been common; most of this fallout, sufficient to have caused considerable injury, was material deposited in the troposphere and brought down to earth over a period of weeks, largely by rain.
Some fallout was placed into the stratosphere, where it will continue to fall to earth over a period of years. Radioactive elements such as strontium 90 and carbon 14 have particularly long lives and pose the greatest danger over the long term.
Our projections for long-term radiation effects are perhaps most affected by the fallout of these dangerous elements.
Given the nature of the Soviet attack, the targets, calculated MY yield, and existent and projected fallout, the following somatic and genetic effects can be anticipated in the United States alone over the next 35–40 years:
| Cancer deaths | 3,000,000 |
| Thyroid cancers | 2,000,000 |
| Thyroid nodules | 3,000,000 |
| Abortions due to chromosomal damage | 1,500,000 |
| Other genetic effects | 4,500,000 |
These same effects, considered for the Northern Hemisphere (concentrated between 30 degrees and 60 degrees North Latitude) for the same time period, are as follows:
