| Cancer deaths | 1,500,000 |
| Thyroid cancers | 1,400,000 |
| Thyroid nodules | 2,000,000 |
| Abortions due to chromosomal damage | 850,000 |
| Other genetic effects | 3,000,000 |
The estimated effects on the Soviet Union as a result of the American attack, over the same time period, are as follows:
| Cancer deaths | 1,500,000 |
| Thyroid cancers | 2,500,000 |
| Thyroid nodules | 3,600,000 |
| Abortions due to chromosomal damage | 1,750,000 |
| Other genetic effects | 2,000,000 |
These projections, of course, do not include those individuals killed either during the attack or shortly thereafter.
National Security Council
Committee on Long-Term Radiation Effects
August 27, 1992
The Committee on Long-Term Radiation Effects was asked by the Executive Office on August 1, 1992, to prepare a summary of information available on the physiological and related socio-psychological effects observed to date in victims of the nuclear bombings of 1988, especially on those effects caused by or related to radiation. Further, we were asked to report wherever possible on data for both the United States and the Soviet Union. Unfortunately, scientific information is largely unavailable from the Soviet Union. Secondary observations from visiting European teams suggest, however, that long-term trends observed here in the United States are generally comparable to trends believed to exist in the USSR. It is not the intention of this summary report to describe political developments, as more complete studies of the subject are available from other government agencies.
The Committee wishes to stress from the outset that while this report summarizes a considerable body of evidence, based on classic prewar studies as well as on American and British studies undertaken since 1988, only major trends are reported here. Contemporary studies, for example, have been conducted only during the last three years, although some five years have passed since Warday. It must be noted that the full, long-term consequences of massive radiation dosages cannot be known completely at this time; this is particularly true of genetic effects.
As requested, this report will address presently observed trends in physiological/genetic injuries caused by war-related radiation exposure. Where appropriate, however, related socio-psychological effects also will be described. It is important to note that these data describe only survivors of the attack.
1.1 NEOPLASMS
The single most dramatic trend observed to date is in the inordinate number of radiation-induced neoplasms, or cancers, from some 30 percent nationwide before the war to almost 60 percent today. Studies conducted by the National Centers for Disease Control in the Washington , D.C., zone, and by the joint American- British Radiation Effects Teams in the South Texas zone, provide the most comprehensive evidence to date that perhaps as much as 90 percent of the affected populations in both zones suffer to some degree from radiation- induced cancers. Of this population, depending upon radiation dosage (both short and cumulative), more than 60 percent have experienced malignant neoplastic diseases. Skin tumors are perhaps the most common, followed by lung, stomach, breast, and ovary/reproductive organs. The prewar cancer rate for the entire population, excluding cancer of the skin, was perhaps 30 percent; of that population, some 15–18 percent died. Exposure to radiation at the 150–200-rem level, however, effectively doubles the rate of cancer. Studies conducted after Warday suggest that more than half of the population in or near bombed areas suffered rem exposures at the 350–500 level. Aerial surveys of the Texas and New York zones suggest that individuals as far away as 2.5 miles from GZ [Ground Zero] experienced exposure levels of 100–150 rems. Those individuals two miles from GZ probably received exposures in the 500-rem level. Demographic correlates, therefore, suggest that in these two urban zones alone, more than 35 million persons experienced radiation levels sufficient to cause cancer. Correcting for those killed instantly and those who died within the first six months, some 15 million persons have now, or can be expected to have, malignancies.
