It wasn’t just the health risk. Most had some background in veterinary studies or health care, so they knew how to take proper samples and protect themselves from infection. It was also politics. The Chinese government was wary of this outside meddling and at times tried to block it. But using the cultural smarts he’d developed as a boy, Guan helped win his staff access to poultry markets across the vast belly of China even as officials grew increasingly uncomfortable with the extent of infection his program was uncovering. He demurred when I pressed him for more details. “This is a kind of top-secret weapon, a top-secret system.”
The logistics of maintaining this network were almost beyond Guan’s ability. The financial burden of paying the staff was tremendous. “They are working for the good of China, working for the good of Hong Kong, working for the rest of the world,” he kept telling himself. But the sampling of more than two hundred thousand birds over nearly a decade yielded an unrivalled library of ever-mutating influenza viruses. It came to represent the most comprehensive accounting of the pandemic threat, in essence an early-warning system for the world.
Guan told me in late 2007 that his research showed the virus was now smoldering in poultry across much of Asia, waiting to flare up. China had ordered a massive campaign to vaccinate chickens against bird flu, as had Vietnam and Indonesia. While this had helped curtail poultry outbreaks in many places and reduced the overall level of infection in birds, the practice had not eliminated the pathogen altogether. Birds were still spreading it but without overt symptoms. “The virus is covered up,” he warned. “We’re giving the virus a chance. Now the virus can travel freely and undetectably and easily be transmitted.”
Many in government and media had mistaken silence for peace.
“Because we don’t have a pandemic today,” he said, “don’t accuse of us of crying wolf.”
Guan had been at his apartment watching television on Boxing Day 2003 when his wife called. Though the day after Christmas was a legal holiday in Hong Kong, she had gone in to work, where she’d heard a disturbing report. After a half-year hiatus, there was a new suspected case of SARS in China.
Guan was not surprised. The Chinese government had reopened the wild-game markets months earlier despite his objections. The world’s concern over the disease had waned but not Guan’s. He had continued sampling wild animals. He had even expanded his effort beyond Shenzhen to cover other markets across Guangdong province. His findings were alarming. Not only was he discovering the SARS
A week later, he met with senior Guangdong health officials at a Guangzhou hotel to argue his case. The civets had to be slaughtered. Guan was emotional, perhaps too emotional. The officials were skeptical of his judgment and resisted such a radical recommendation. The trade in wild animals was worth at least $100 million a year to the provincial economy. But when Guan had them compare the genetic signature of the virus from the ailing journalist with the one he had isolated from civets, they were stunned to see that the two were practically identical.
Later that day, the governor of Guangdong ordered that all civets on the farms and in the markets of the province be culled. Though three more human cases would surface in Guangdong that month, the outbreak would be rapidly contained. WHO credited Guan for helping preempt a second SARS epidemic.
“Before it got into humans, I knew it was coming, but other people said I was crying wolf,” he recounted. “After the first case, I said, ‘Let’s use direct scientific information to stop the outbreak.’ So it was averted.”
Guan now finds himself playing a prophetic role again. To anyone who listens, he says the moral of SARS is clear. The flu virus must be controlled in birds. Whatever it takes, the microbial agent must be extinguished before a readily transmissible flu strain jumps to people, because once it does, global spread is inevitable. There won’t be time to stop it.
But he laments that his counsel is again being shunned. Only now, with the flu virus so widespread, it could be too late.
“I did my job,” he said, rising to light another Mild Seven. “I can face God and say, ‘OK, God, this mission I did. I gave all this advance warning. I provided evidence. I did everything a scientist could do. The remaining job is for governments and politicians. And each person must pay the price if they go against the laws of nature.’ ”
CHAPTER SEVEN
Cockfighting and Karma
The pair of Thai fighting cocks, long-legged and elegant, stalked each other around the dirt ring, feinting and probing for an opening. They puffed out their broad chests, flaunting their foot-tall physiques. Then they each settled into a brief crouch, face-to-face, beak to razor-sharp beak. As they spread the majestic plumage around their necks, electricity coursed through the arena with anticipation of first blood.
Generations of breeding had brought the prizefighters to this moment of steely, instinctive, hard-wired aggression, nurtured and shaped by hundreds of hours of training.
They attacked as one, lunging at each other through the air, colliding in midflight with the muffled thud of meat on meat and the frantic flapping of ruffled wings and tails.
Spectators leaped from their concrete-block bleachers, surging against the edge of the ring.
Feathers flew. Blood oozed from the wounded eye of one combatant, a lean, handsome rooster with rich black plumage and golden brown along the neck and back. Even more was flowing from the throat of his adversary, an equally graceful creature with a white body and black trim along the wings and tail. His neck was quickly staining red.
Cries swelled in the bleachers as the spectators doubled and redoubled their wagers like frenzied traders on the floor of a stock exchange. Phapart Thieuviharn, a lifelong cock breeder with intense brown eyes and straight black hair speckled with gray, shifted anxiously on the edge of his seat, clutching the notepad on which he had scribbled his bets. Hundreds and perhaps thousands of dollars in Thai baht would ultimately change hands once one of the roosters finally surrendered to its injuries.
But Phapart and 125 other spectators were wagering more than their banknotes. They were gambling with their lives. In the years since bird flu began racing across Southeast Asia, cockfighting has repeatedly been implicated as a killer. It has sickened cock breeders and enthusiasts from Thailand to Vietnam and spread the virus on to Malaysia and perhaps even to Indonesia through the smuggled exports of prized fighting birds.
Cockfighting has long been a prominent feature of rural Southeast Asia, intertwined with its history, a spectacle for kings and peasants alike. For centuries, it seemed to pose no human threat but was just one more tradition that wove together the lives of man and bird into the fiber of daily existence. Villagers shared their homes with their chickens, peddled poultry at live markets, and integrated wildfowl into religious rituals. But these traditions, benign for humans if not the birds, have lately acquired a sinister edge. They have proven largely impervious to the admonitions of public health officials, who have urgently warned that the practice could unlock flu’s devastating potential.
In fundamental ways, modernity has recast this corner of the world, unleashing dramatic economic changes that have magnified the potential for a pandemic strain and weaving the region into a globalized planet now exposed as never before to viral threats born of Asia. Yet Asia’s past could also be mankind’s undoing if age-old conventions give the virus entree into the human population. Time and again, the intimate contact between fighting cocks and their doting breeders has proven a fatal attraction. Even for spectators at the cockpit, the brew of rooster blood, breath, and mucus that sprayed the ringside could be lethal.
Yet flu seemed of little matter on this sultry Sunday when Phapart had agreed to take me to the fights. We had driven about forty miles from his home in the northern Thai province of Phayao, where the sport had been banned because of public health concerns, to neighboring Chiang Rai province, where it was still allowed. But gambling was not. So local villagers thought it prudent to build their arena away from the main roads, far from the inquisitive eyes and outstretched palms of law enforcement. We turned off the paved road and headed down a long, unmarked dirt track that stretched deep into the emerald rice paddies until we reached a clearing. Though barely midday, the dirt and grass lot was already filling up with dusty pickup trucks. A young man collected fifty cents from Phapart. By midafternoon, the attendant would net about two hundred dollars in parking fees.
