Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality

'Not to my most discerning Charms,' said Albus. 'But the shells are new things; and to defeat the Unspeakables' precautions and leave no trace of the defeat... might not be impossible.'

She opened her eyes, and saw Severus and the Headmaster staring intently at a parchment covered with tangled squiggles that would have no doubt driven her mad to comprehend.

'Have you come to any conclusions?' Minerva said. 'And please don't tell me how you arrived at them.'

Severus and the Headmaster looked at each other, then turned to look at her.

'We have concluded,' the Headmaster said gravely, 'that either Harry was involved or he was not; that either Voldemort has access to a Time-Turner or he does not; and that regardless of what could have happened within Azkaban, nobody would have visited the Little Hangleton graveyard during the period Moody has already watched over it within my own past.'

'In short,' Severus drawled, 'we know nothing, dear Minerva; though it seems at least likely that another Time-Turner was involved, somehow. My own suspicion is that Potter has been bribed, tricked, or threatened into conveying messages backward in time, perhaps even regarding this very prison break. I shall not make the obvious suggestion as to who is pulling his strings. But I suggest that at nine o' clock tonight, we test whether Potter is able to travel the full six hours backward to three o' clock, to see if he has yet used his Time-Turner.'

'That seems wise to do in any case,' said Dumbledore. 'See that done, Minerva, and tell Harry to stop in my office at his convenience, afterward.'

'But you still suspect Harry of direct involvement in the prison break itself?' Minerva said.

'Possible but unlikely,' said Severus, at the same time Albus said, 'Yes.'

Minerva pinched the bridge of her nose, took a deep breath, let it out. 'Albus, Severus, what possible reason has Mr. Potter to do such a thing!'

'None that I can think of,' said Albus, 'but it remains that Harry's magics alone, of all the means known to me, might have -'

'Hold,' said Severus. All expression vanished from his face. 'A thought occurs to me, I must check -' The Potions Master seized a pinch of Floo powder, strode across the room toward the fireplace - Albus hastily waved his wand to light it - and then in a flare of green flame, and the words 'Slytherin Head of House office', Severus was gone.

She and Albus looked at each other and both shrugged; and then Albus turned back to studying the parchment.

It was only a few minutes later that Severus spun back out of the Floo, brushing traces of ash from himself.

'Well,' said the Potions Master. Again the expressionless face. 'I am afraid that Mr. Potter does have a motive.'

'Speak!' said Albus.

'I found Lesath Lestrange in the Slytherin common room, studying,' Severus said. 'He was not reluctant to meet my eyes. And it seems that Mr. Lestrange did not like to think of his parents in Azkaban, in the cold and the darkness, with the Dementors sucking away their life, hurting every second of every day, and he told Mr. Potter so in as many words, and begged him to get them out. Since, you see, Mr. Lestrange had heard that the Boy-Who- Lived could do anything.'

She and Albus exchanged glances.

'Severus,' Minerva said, 'surely... even Harry... has more common sense than that...'

Her voice trailed off.

'Mr. Potter thinks he is God,' Severus said without expression, 'and Lesath Lestrange fell to his knees before him in a heartfelt cry of prayer.'

Minerva stared at Severus, feeling sick to her stomach. She had studied Muggle religion - it was the most common reason for needing to Memory-Charm the parents of Muggleborns - and she knew enough to understand what Severus had just said.

'In any case,' said the Potions Master. 'I looked within Mr. Lestrange to see if he knew anything of his mother's escape. He has heard nothing. But the instant he learns, he will conclude that the person responsible was Harry Potter.'

'I see...' Albus said slowly. 'Thank you, Severus. That is good news.'

'Good news?' Minerva burst out.

Albus looked at her, his face as expressionless as Severus's, now; and she remembered, with a shock, that Albus's own - 'It is the best reason I can possibly imagine for removing Bellatrix from Azkaban,' Albus said quietly. 'And if it is not Harry, let us recall, then it is certainly Voldemort himself making his first moves. But let us not be hasty in judgment while there is much we do not yet know, but soon will.'

Albus once more stood up from behind his desk, strode to the fireplace still alight, cast in another pinch of green powder, and stuck his head into the flames. 'Department of Magical Law Enforcement,' he said, 'Director's office.'

After a moment, the voice of Madam Bones came through clear and sharp, 'What is it, Albus? I am somewhat busy.'

'Amelia,' said Albus, 'I beg of you to share any discoveries you have made concerning this matter.'

There was a pause. 'Oh,' said the cold voice of Madam Bones from the blazing fire, 'and is that a two-way road then, Albus?'