Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality

'Worse than any peril left in these fading years,' said Albus. 'Not worse than that which erased Atlantis from Time.'

Minerva stared at him, feeling the sweat break out all along her spine.

Severus continued, still addressing Albus. 'All the Death Eaters save Bellatrix would have betrayed him, all his supporters turned against him, all the powers of the world converged to destroy him, if he had been reckless with any truly dangerous potency. Is this so different, then?'

Some motion, some color, had returned to the old wizard's face. 'Perhaps not...'

'And in any case,' Severus said with a slightly condescending smile, 'Muggle weapons are not so easy to obtain, not for a thousand Galleons or a thousand thousand.'

Doesn't Harry just Transfigure the devices he uses in his battles? thought Minerva, but before she could open her mouth to ask -

The fireplace erupted in green flames, then, and the face of Pius Thicknesse, Madam Bones's assistant, appeared therein. 'Chief Warlock?' said Thicknesse. 'I have a report for you, transmitted from -' Thicknesse's eyes flickered over Minerva and Severus, 'six minutes ago.'

'Six hours ahead, you mean,' said Albus. 'These two are meant to hear it; deliver your report.'

'We know how it was done,' said Thicknesse. 'In Bellatrix Black's cell, hidden in one corner, was a potions vial; and testing the traces of remaining fluid shows that it was an Animagus potion.'

There was a long pause.

'I see...' Albus said heavily.

'Pardon me?' said Minerva. She didn't.

Thicknesse's head turned toward her. 'Animagi, Madam McGonagall, in their Animagus forms, are of less interest to Dementors. All prisoners are tested before their arrival at Azkaban; and if they are Animagi, their Animagus form is destroyed. But we had not considered that someone protected by a Patronus Charm while taking the potion and performing the meditation, might be able to become an Animagus after they went to Azkaban -'

'I understood,' Severus said, having by now put on his customary sneer, 'that the Animagus meditation required considerable time.'

'Well, Mr. Snape,' Thicknesse barked, 'records show that Bellatrix Black was an Animagus before she was sentenced to Azkaban and her form destroyed; so maybe her second meditation didn't take as much time as her first!'

'I would not have thought it possible for any prisoner of Azkaban to do such a thing...' Albus said. 'But Bellatrix Black was a most powerful sorceress before her incarceration, and she might have done it if any witch could. Can Azkaban be secured against this method?'

'Yes,' said the confident head of Pius Thicknesse. 'Our expert says that it is nigh-unimaginable that an Animagus meditation could be performed in less than three hours, regardless of experience. All visits to prisoners allowed to receive them will be limited to two hours henceforth, and the Dementors will inform us if any Patronus Charm is maintained in the prison areas for longer than that.'

Albus looked unhappy at that, but nodded. 'I see. There will be no further attempts of that sort, of course, but do not relax your vigilance. And when Amelia has been told all this, tell her that I have information for her.'

The head of Pius Thicknesse vanished without another word.

'No further attempts...?' said Minerva.

'Because, dear Minerva,' Severus drawled, having not quite taken off his habitual sneer, 'if the Dark Lord had planned to free any of his other servants from Azkaban, he would not have left behind the vial of potion to tell us how it was done.' Severus frowned. 'I confess... even so I do not see why that vial was left there.'

'It is some kind of message...' Albus said slowly. 'And I cannot see what it means, not at all...' He drummed his fingers on his desk.

For a long minute or three, the old wizard stared off into nothingness, frowning; while Severus also sat in silence.

Then Albus shook his head in dismay, and said, 'Severus, do you comprehend this?'

'No,' said the Potions Master, and with a sardonic smile, 'which is probably all the better for us; whatever we are intended to conclude from it, that part of his plan has misfired.'

'You are certain, now, that it is You-Know... that it is Voldemort?' said Minerva. 'It could not be that some other Death Eater conceived this clever notion?'

'And they knew about rockets, too?' Severus said dryly. 'I don't believe the other Death Eaters were so fond of Muggle Studies. It is he.'

'Aye, it is he,' Albus said. 'Azkaban has endured impenetrable for ages, only to fall to an ordinary Animagus potion. It is too clever and too impossible, which was ever Voldemort's signature since the days he was known as Tom Riddle. Anyone who wished to forge that signature must needs be as cunning as Voldemort himself to do so. And there is no one else in the world who would accidentally overestimate my wit, and leave me a message I cannot understand at all.'

'Unless he has gauged you exactly,' Severus said tonelessly, 'in which case all that is just what he intended you to think.'

Albus sighed. 'Indeed. But even if he has tricked me perfectly, we may at least rely on the conclusion that it was not Harry Potter.'

It should have come as a relief, and yet Minerva felt the chill spreading through her spine and her veins, her lungs and her bones.

She remembered conversations like this.