prediction about the year 2100: “ Imagine the future and try to predict how the world will change over the next century. Think about everyday life as well as major changes in so ciety, culture, and technology. ” About 20,000 people responded, and after considerable analysis of their written text, 2,000 formal questionnaire items resulted. I wrote them into a Windows-based computer program that anyone can use to explore their own conceptions of the future, freely available online. [7] In connection with fluid democracy, this study suggests one way in which the general public can be polled to identify issues of concern to them, of course using a variety of open-ended questions appropriate for a range of policy areas, and even larger number of respondents than a mere 20,000.

While it is very important to develop a new political system that can adjust the balance between direct democracy and representative democracy, the decisions of legislatures are only one early stage in political decision making. The study of space goals can illustrate this. Table 3 lists 14 space goals, out of a preliminary list of 49, which clustered together correlationally as revealed by a factor analysis. The data came from a 1977 pilot study of 225 American voters who lived in the Seattle, Washington area, data collected with the able help of Richard Wyckoff who at that time was a graduate student. This was only a pilot study, and the 1986 study was more extensive, yet because it polled voters the 1977 study seems symbolically appropriate to use here. The factor loading for an item represents essentially the correlation between the item and the underlying but unmeasured concept that unites the group, so we can see that the fundamental idea focuses on human colonization of the solar system. The popularity of each item is the percent of voters calling it an extremely good or moderately good reason for supporting the space program.

Table 3: Visionary Space Exploration Goals

Benefit of the Space Program Factor Loading Popularity
Overpopulation on Earth can be solved by using the living space on other planets 0.70 24.9%
Space travel will lead to the planting of human colonies on new worlds in space. 0.70 24.3%
Society has a chance for a completely fresh start in space; new social forms and exciting new styles of life can be created on other worlds. 0.66 24.0%
Raw materials from the moon and other planets can supplement the dwindling natural resources of the Earth. 0.63 50.9%
Our world has become too small for human civilization and for the human mind; we need the wide open spaces of the stars and planets to get away from the confines of our shrinking world. 0.59 17.6%
Spaceflight is necessary to ensure the survival of the human race against destruction by natural or man-made disaster. 0.57 25.6%
Human societies have always needed to expand in order to remain healthy; space is the only direction left for such expansion 0.56 31.4%
We must go beyond the finite Earth into infinite space in order to continue economic growth without limit. 0.54 20.7%
Space hospitals put into orbit where there is no gravity will be able to provide new kinds of medical treatment and give many patients easier recoveries. 0.53 50.70%
Commercial manufacturing can be done in space without polluting the Earth; completely new materials and products can be made in space. 0.47 %40.6
Communication with intelligent beings from other planets would give us completely new perceptions of humanity, new art, philosophy, and science. 0.44 55.3%
We can conduct certain dangerous kinds of scientific experiment far in space so accidents and other hazards will not harm anyone. 0.42 36.2%
Without spaceflight we would be trapped, closed-in, jailed on this planet. 0.41
Добавить отзыв
ВСЕ ОТЗЫВЫ О КНИГЕ В ИЗБРАННОЕ

0

Вы можете отметить интересные вам фрагменты текста, которые будут доступны по уникальной ссылке в адресной строке браузера.

Отметить Добавить цитату
×