The Shark Mutiny

“The cause of the accident is at present unknown, but the Captain and his crew are believed to be preparing to abandon her. Fires are reported raging over one hundred feet into the skies.

“This is the third major shipping accident in the strait in the past four days, following the inferno of the liquid-gas carrier Global Bronco of Houston, on Friday, and the explosion in the Greek crude carrier Olympus 2004 on Saturday.”

The newscaster ended the report by stating the U.S. Navy would be issuing a statement later in the afternoon, but as yet there was no suggestion that any nation had elected to place sea mines in the strait to endanger world oil-shipping routes.

Right at that moment Jimmy’s phone rang, and he heard the gruff and distinct tones of Admiral Morgan. “Okay, Jimmy, I guess that does it. Go keep your boss up to speed, but keep me personally alerted to any information you get off the overheads.”

The phone went down before Lt. Ramshawe could even answer. And before he could gather his wits, his other phone went, and Jane was on the line, telling him how clever he was, and would he be able to have dinner tonight with her, and her parents, at the embassy.

“You seen the television?” he asked her.

“Darned right I did. I was watching it with my dad. He said immediately the Iranians had mined the area, just as they’d been threatening to do.

“I told him that was my considered opinion, too. Told him I’d suspected something like that since the Bronco went up last Friday…. He gave me a real old-fashioned look.”

“I should think he did. But he doesn’t know about the phone call, does he — the one from his private line?”

“No. At least he hasn’t said anything. Anyway, are you coming tonight? He’s got some Aussie sailors coming, yachtsmen, America’s Cup guys. Might be fun.”

“Yup. I’ll be there. ’Bout seven.”

1300. Same day. The Oval Office.

Admiral Morgan recounted the events in the gulf swiftly and with no elaboration.

The President sat impassively, and asked curtly, “Your recommendations?”

“Sir, I have already ordered the Constellation CVBG south from the Iraqi coast, and the John C. Stennis Group is closing the strait immediately from the Arabian Sea. Our third Group in the area, the Harry S Truman’s, should clear Diego Garcia by tomorrow morning and head north. I’ve arranged for the Indian Navy to begin a hunt-and-sweep operation with their Pondicherrys as soon as they can get there. Right now they’re on their way from Bombay, probably be in Hormuz waters by tomorrow morning our time…. I had them leave on Sunday.”

“Do you think there could be full-scale hostilities, Admiral? I don’t want to get drawn into an unpopular war with Iran. Dead American sailors don’t play well politically.”

“Sir, this is probably the height of our national interest. Do you have any idea what might happen if the gulf had to be closed off for a month?”

“I cannot say I have given it deep thought, Admiral. But I am much more concerned about sitting in this chair being universally blamed for death, destruction and burned Americans. Because that’s what happens when you start flexing the muscles of big warships.”

“If we don’t start flexing them, sir, the entire world oil supply could go right up the chute. And if the lights went out in the USA, you’d get yourself a very special place in history. Especially if you had refused to act in the Persian Gulf in the face of hostility and threats from Iran and their buddies in Beijing.”

“As usual, Admiral, you have my best interests at heart.” There was an edge of sarcasm in the President’s voice.

“Perhaps not, sir. But I always have the best interests of this nation at heart.”

“Then proceed as you think fit, Admiral. You always do, anyway…. Just let me know if I need to make a speech, will you? And perhaps Harcourt should make some kind of diplomatic overtures to the Chinese and the Iranians?”

“Two reasons not to, sir. One, it will alert the entire world to a crisis we may be able to strangle at birth. Two, they’ll just deny everything anyway, and probably be very amused at our concern. ’Specially if they’ve done it, which I already know they have.”

Arnold Morgan did not wait for a reply. He just turned on his heel and left, muttering to himself, “What a lightweight. What a goddamned lightweight. In five years he’s gone from being a damned good president to a self- serving wimp.”

By late afternoon every evening newspaper in the country was speculating about the possibility of a minefield in the Strait of Hormuz. The longtime threat of the Ayatollahs was uppermost in the mind of every defense correspondent in every corner of the media.

Television networks waited with scarcely contained excitement for the statement from the U.S. Navy. But when it came it was stark and noncommittal, precisely the way Arnold Morgan had instructed.

The CNO had declined a press conference and issued his written statement, deliberately late, at 21.30, through the main wire services, carefully avoiding anything that would suggest panic to either the Chinese or the Iranians.

It read: “The United States Navy has noted the three tanker incidents in the Strait of Hormuz during the last four days. In particular we noted that two of them burned, and one suffered an apparent explosion that released large quantities of oil into the sea. In addition, we noted that all three incidents occurred in a narrow seaway between the countries of Oman and Iran.

“We have been in contact with our major allies in the area and have agreed to support them in their efforts to ascertain the causes of these incidents, and to discover whether there might be a link between them.

“However, it is too early to arrive at any conclusions. We expect at least one of our aircraft carriers and her escorts to arrive on station in the strait in the next 24 hours. Another U.S. CVBG is currently steaming toward the strait from the Arabian Sea.

“In company with several other industrial nations, we are extremely concerned to ensure the continued free passage of the world’s fuel tankers through the strait both into, and out of, the Gulf of Iran.

“We have assured our allies of our continued assistance, should it become necessary to rectify any wrongdoing by any nation in these peaceful trading waters upon which so many countries depend.”

It was signed, “Admiral Alan Dixon, Chief of United States Naval Operations.”

It was good, but not good enough. Four East Coast tabloid dailies were already setting headlines like: MINEFIELD TERROR IN THE GULF…TANKERS BLOWN UP IN GULF MINEFIELD. IRAN’S MINES BLAST U.S. TANKERS.

All through the evening the television networks developed their stories, bringing in experts to discourse on the dangers in that part of the Middle East; recounting Iranian threats over the years; debating the possible involvement of China; discussing the consequences of an oil blockade.

By midnight, the President had called an emergency cabinet meeting in President Reagan’s old Situation Room in the West Wing. And there the major brains in the Administration attemped to walk the tightrope between being prepared militarily and creating mass panic at the gas pumps.

Arnold Morgan, whose voice would be heard the loudest, since he had been effectively on the case since Friday, was, uncharacteristically, urging caution. He wanted the CVBG in the strait to protect and assist the Indian Navy’s minesweepers. However, he saw no real advantage in making overt threats to either the Iranian or Chinese navies, save to make them absolutely aware that if any of their warships attempted to interfere, they would be sunk forthwith by U.S. Naval firepower.

As far as the National Security Adviser was concerned, the U.S. Navy had the matter well in hand. And with the strait now well and truly off-limits to all world shipping, there seemed little point in looking for trouble until the Indians’ Pondicherrys had begun work clearing the mines. In order to clear a three-mile-wide safe passage on the Omani side, Admiral Morgan estimated they might have to sweep 40 of them, which might take several days beginning Tuesday night (local time).