and leading member of the Geological Society, endorsed this view, arguing that the notion that ice could transport boulders presented “such obvious mechanical absurdities” as to make it unworthy of the society’s attention.
Undaunted, Agassiz traveled tirelessly to promote his theory. In 1840 he read a paper to a meeting of the British Association for the Advancement of Science in Glasgow at which he was openly criticized by the great Charles Lyell. The following year the Geological Society of Edinburgh passed a resolution conceding that there might be some general merit in the theory but that certainly none of it applied to Scotland.
Lyell did eventually come round. His moment of epiphany came when he realized that a moraine, or line of rocks, near his family estate in Scotland, which he had passed hundreds of times, could only be understood if one accepted that a glacier had dropped them there. But having become converted, Lyell then lost his nerve and backed off from public support of the Ice Age idea. It was a frustrating time for Agassiz. His marriage was breaking up, Schimper was hotly accusing him of the theft of his ideas, Charpentier wouldn’t speak to him, and the greatest living geologist offered support of only the most tepid and vacillating kind.
In 1846, Agassiz traveled to America to give a series of lectures and there at last found the esteem he craved. Harvard gave him a professorship and built him a first-rate museum, the Museum of Comparative Zoology. Doubtless it helped that he had settled in New England, where the long winters encouraged a certain sympathy for the idea of interminable periods of cold. It also helped that six years after his arrival the first scientific expedition to Greenland reported that nearly the whole of that semicontinent was covered in an ice sheet just like the ancient one imagined in Agassiz’s theory. At long last, his ideas began to find a real following. The one central defect of Agassiz’s theory was that his ice ages had no cause. But assistance was about to come from an unlikely quarter.
In the 1860s, journals and other learned publications in Britain began to receive papers on hydrostatics, electricity, and other scientific subjects from a James Croll of Anderson’s University in Glasgow. One of the papers, on how variations in Earth’s orbit might have precipitated ice ages, was published in the
Born in 1821, Croll grew up poor, and his formal education lasted only to the age of thirteen. He worked at a variety of jobs-as a carpenter, insurance salesman, keeper of a temperance hotel-before taking a position as a janitor at Anderson’s (now the University of Strathclyde) in Glasgow. By somehow inducing his brother to do much of his work, he was able to pass many quiet evenings in the university library teaching himself physics, mechanics, astronomy, hydrostatics, and the other fashionable sciences of the day, and gradually began to produce a string of papers, with a particular emphasis on the motions of Earth and their effect on climate.
Croll was the first to suggest that cyclical changes in the shape of Earth’s orbit, from elliptical (which is to say slightly oval) to nearly circular to elliptical again, might explain the onset and retreat of ice ages. No one had ever thought before to consider an astronomical explanation for variations in Earth’s weather. Thanks almost entirely to Croll’s persuasive theory, people in Britain began to become more responsive to the notion that at some former time parts of the Earth had been in the grip of ice. When his ingenuity and aptitude were recognized, Croll was given a job at the Geological Survey of Scotland and widely honored: he was made a fellow of the Royal Society in London and of the New York Academy of Science and given an honorary degree from the University of St. Andrews, among much else.
Unfortunately, just as Agassiz’s theory was at last beginning to find converts in Europe, he was busy taking it into ever more exotic territory in America. He began to find evidence for glaciers practically everywhere he looked, including near the equator. Eventually he became convinced that ice had once covered the whole Earth, extinguishing all life, which God had then re-created. None of the evidence Agassiz cited supported such a view. Nonetheless, in his adopted country his stature grew and grew until he was regarded as only slightly below a deity. When he died in 1873 Harvard felt it necessary to appoint three professors to take his place.
Yet, as sometimes happens, his theories fell swiftly out of fashion. Less than a decade after his death his successor in the chair of geology at Harvard wrote that the “so-called glacial epoch . . . so popular a few years ago among glacial geologists may now be rejected without hesitation.”
Part of the problem was that Croll’s computations suggested that the most recent ice age occurred eighty thousand years ago, whereas the geological evidence increasingly indicated that Earth had undergone some sort of dramatic perturbation much more recently than that. Without a plausible explanation for what might have provoked an ice age, the whole theory fell into abeyance. There it might have remained for some time except that in the early 1900s a Serbian academic named Milutin Milankovitch, who had no background in celestial motions at all-he was a mechanical engineer by training-developed an unexpected interest in the matter. Milankovitch realized that the problem with Croll’s theory was not that it was incorrect but that it was too simple.
As Earth moves through space, it is subject not just to variations in the length and shape of its orbit, but also to rhythmic shifts in its angle of orientation to the Sun-its tilt and pitch and wobble-all affecting the length and intensity of sunlight falling on any patch of land. In particular it is subject to three changes in position, known formally as its obliquity, precession, and eccentricity, over long periods of time. Milankovitch wondered if there might be a relationship between these complex cycles and the comings and goings of ice ages. The difficulty was that the cycles were of widely different lengths-of approximately 20,000, 40,000, and 100,000 years, but varying in each case by up to a few thousand years-which meant that determining their points of intersection over long spans of time involved a nearly endless amount of devoted computation. Essentially Milankovitch had to work out the angle and duration of incoming solar radiation at every latitude on Earth, in every season, for a million years, adjusted for three ever-changing variables.
Happily this was precisely the sort of repetitive toil that suited Milankovitch’s temperament. For the next twenty years, even while on vacation, he worked ceaselessly with pencil and slide rule computing the tables of his cycles-work that now could be completed in a day or two with a computer. The calculations all had to be made in his spare time, but in 1914 Milankovitch suddenly got a great deal of that when World War I broke out and he was arrested owing to his position as a reservist in the Serbian army. He spent most of the next four years under loose house arrest in Budapest, required only to report to the police once a week. The rest of his time was spent working in the library of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences. He was possibly the happiest prisoner of war in history.
The eventual outcome of his diligent scribblings was the 1930 book
The cause of ice ages, Koppen decided, is to be found in cool summers, not brutal winters. If summers are too cool to melt all the snow that falls on a given area, more incoming sunlight is bounced back by the reflective surface, exacerbating the cooling effect and encouraging yet more snow to fall. The consequence would tend to be self-perpetuating. As snow accumulated into an ice sheet, the region would grow cooler, prompting more ice to accumulate. As the glaciologist Gwen Schultz has noted: “It is not necessarily the
In the 1950s, because of imperfect dating technology, scientists were unable to correlate Milankovitch’s carefully worked-out cycles with the supposed dates of ice ages as then perceived, and so Milankovitch and his calculations increasingly fell out of favor. He died in 1958, unable to prove that his cycles were correct. By this time, write John and Mary Gribbin, “you would have been hard pressed to find a geologist or meteorologist who regarded the model as being anything more than an historical curiosity.” Not until the 1970s and the refinement of a potassium-argon method for dating ancient seafloor sediments were his theories finally vindicated.
The Milankovitch cycles alone are not enough to explain cycles of ice ages. Many other factors are involved-not least the disposition of the continents, in particular the presence of landmasses over the poles-but the specifics of these are imperfectly understood. It has been suggested, however, that if you hauled North America, Eurasia, and Greenland just three hundred miles north we would have permanent and inescapable ice ages. We are
