Ashes Of Victory

them... and one which they knew she could address from first-hand experience.

'And Fourth Yeltsin would certainly be one example of it,' she went on. 'Another would be Third Yeltsin, when Earl White Haven managed to mislead Admiral Parnell about his true strength until after Parnell had accepted action.'

'I understand that, Ma'am,' Gillingham said. 'But at Third Yeltsin, Earl White Haven used his stealth systems and low-powered wedges to keep the Peeps from seeing his additional units at all. They were a surprise because no one on the other side had detected a trace of them until it was too late.'

'Not exactly,' Honor countered, and looked at Jackson Kriangsak. 'Would you care to address that point, Admiral? You were there, after all.'

Several midshipmen's eyes widened at that, and they turned to give the portly Kriangsak much closer looks.

'Yes, I was, Your Grace,' Kriangsak agreed, managing not to break a smile at the sudden intensity of his audience's regard, and then turned to look at Gillingham.

'What I believe Her Grace is getting at, Mr. Gillingham, is that when the Peeps detected our additional units it was too late for Admiral Parnell to avoid action entirely. But go back and review Earl White Haven's and Admiral D'Orville's after-action reports. For that matter, ONI interviewed Admiral Parnell to get his side of the battle, as well, before he left for Beowulf. If Parnell's account is still classified — it shouldn't be, but there's no telling what the red-tape types have been up to — drop me an e-note and I'll get you cleared for it.' Gillingham nodded wordlessly, and Kriangsak shrugged.

'What I believe you'll find from all three sources is that even with the best EW we had, and despite the fact that Admiral Parnell had convincing intelligence to suggest that our forces were far weaker than they actually were, he still correctly identified our extra ships of the wall early enough to avoid a decisive action. He was forced to withdraw and suffered heavy losses, but had he been even fifteen or twenty minutes slower in reacting, he would have lost virtually his entire fleet. Personally, I suspect that his faulty intelligence made it even closer than it would otherwise have been. He saw, as is far too often the case, what he expected to see. Initially, at least.'

'Absolutely,' Honor agreed. 'But one mark of a superior officer — and Amos Parnell is one of the best tacticians you will ever encounter, make no mistake about that, Ladies and Gentlemen — is her ability to overcome her own expectations. Parnell did that. Too late to avoid suffering a defeat, but much too soon for Earl White Haven to completely envelop him and destroy his forces entirely.'

'That's certainly true, Your Grace,' Kriangsak said, nodding his head vigorously. 'And we tried hard, too. My battlecruiser and her squadron were probably the best placed to get around on his flank, and he avoided us easily. Especially—' the rear admiral grinned wryly '—with the amount of fire a wall of battle can hand out. Which is nothing any battlecruiser squadron ever wants to tangle with.'

'All right, Sir, I can see that,' Gillingham agreed. 'But Earl White Haven clearly tried to achieve complete surprise. Are you and Admiral Harrington saying we shouldn't do the same thing?'

His voice and expression were thoughtful, not challenging, and Honor rubbed the tip of her nose while she considered how best to encourage his willingness to question received wisdom while still making her own point.

'What Admiral Kriangsak and I are saying,' she said after a moment, 'is that it would be a mistake to fall in love with one's own cleverness in attempting to manipulate one's enemy. The most dangerous tactical surprise of all is the one you suffer when you suddenly discover that your opponent has seen through your own deception and turned the tables on you. One of the most outstanding examples of that happened near a place called Midway back on Old Earth in the middle of the second century Ante Diaspora. In fact, I'd like you to pull up the Battle of Midway, Admiral Raymond Spruance, Admiral Chester Nimitz, Admiral Chiuchi Nagumo, and Admiral Isoroku Yamamoto on the Tac Department's data base — you'll find them in the historical, wet navy archives — and give me a short analysis of just how the Imperial Japanese Navy fell prey to that overconfidence. And be prepared to share it briefly with the rest of the class, as well, please.'

'Yes, Ma'am.' Gillingham's respectful response sounded less than thrilled, but that was about the worst anyone could have said. Partly because her pleasant-voiced order came as no surprise — all of Honor's students quickly discovered her penchant for handing out such individual assignments — but also because she had a reputation for making those assignments interesting.

'To continue, however,' she went on, 'what I wanted to suggest is that while it's always worthwhile to convince your opponent to underestimate you or to misinterpret what she's seen, you should never rely on having done that. Work for every advantage you can provide yourself, but base your planning on the assumption that the enemy will make one hundred percent correct deductions from her sensor readings.'

'Excuse me, My Lady, but that wasn't what you did at Fourth Yeltsin,' Midshipwoman Hearns said quietly. Honor tasted a ripple of surprise from a few of the other middies, seasoned with just a trace of trepidation, at Abigail's polite contradiction, but she only cocked her own head and gazed at the midshipwoman, silently inviting her to continue. 'You used EW to disguise your superdreadnoughts as lighter units in order to draw the enemy into your engagement range,' the young woman went on obediently. 'Your after-action report, or the part sufficiently declassified for me to access, at least, doesn't say so in so many words, but weren't you really counting on the Peep admiral to see exactly what you wanted him to see?'

'Yes, I suppose I was,' Honor said. 'On the other hand, my battle plan reflected the fact that I had no choice but to offer action and that my SDs' acceleration was too low to force a close engagement if the Peeps chose to evade. It was imperative to keep the enemy out of powered missile range of the Grayson orbital farms, but it was equally vital to prevent them from simply withdrawing to extreme range and sending their missiles in ballistic at cee-fractional velocities. Under those very special circumstances, I had no choice but to adopt the plan I did. Which, I might add, wasn't a very good one. It was, in fact, a plan of desperation... and I wasn't at all certain it was going to work.'

Or that any of my ships were going to survive the experience if it did work. Not that I have any intention of worrying the lot of you with that particular aspect of it. Yet.

'But what about the Battle of Cerberus, Ma'am?' Theresa Markovic asked politely. Honor turned her gaze to the red-haired midshipwoman, and Markovic raised one hand, palm uppermost. 'You actually came in under reaction thrusters at Cerberus,' she said. 'And modern sensors or not, the enemy never did see you coming until you actually opened fire on them.'

'Um.' Honor cocked her head. 'I wasn't aware my after-action report had been released to the general data base, Ms. Markovic,' she observed rather cooly, and smiled inwardly at the young woman's sudden total lack of expression. Then she glanced at Kriangsak. 'I see the backdoor into the ATC second-tier tac base is still open.'

'Yes, Ma'am. We keep meaning to close it, but we never seem to get around to it,' Kriangsak said blandly, and Honor felt a ripple of relief run through the midshipmen at the admiral's calm tone. It was interesting. From their emotions, virtually all of her current guests had discovered and made surreptitious use of the backdoor, and they were obviously relieved that Markovic (and so, by extension, themselves, if they got caught) would not be blasted to cinders. That was reasonable enough of them, but she wondered how long it would be before they realized that particular backdoor had been left for a purpose. Although it was moved every year and the modes of access changed each semester, it was always there, and the Academy made careful note of which students were enterprising and interested enough to find it.

'In answer to your question, however,' she told Markovic now, 'Cerberus is certainly not an example I'd choose as a model for teaching someone how to plan a battle.'

'But... but it worked perfectly, Ma'am!' Gillingham protested, apparently unaware that to do so confirmed that he, too, had been peeking where he had no official business poking about. 'Like Terri said, the Peeps never even saw you, and you wiped out their entire fleet without taking a single hit! I haven't been able to find another battle in the last three or four hundred years where that was true!'

'Then I suggest you take a look at what Citizen Rear Admiral Lester Tourville did to Commodore Yeargin at