54. Cumming J.G., ‘An epidemic resulting from the contamination of ice cream by a typhoid carrier’, Journal of the American Medical Association, 1917.
55. Bollobas B., ‘To Prove and Conjecture: Paul Erdős and His Mathematics’, American Mathematical Monthly, 1998.
56. Potterat J.J., et al., ‘Sexual network structure as an indicator of epidemic phase’, Sexually Transmitted Infections, 2002.
57. Watts D.J. and Strogatz S.H., ‘Collective dynamics of “small-world” networks’, Nature, 1998.
58. Barabási A.L. and Albert R., ‘Emergence of Scaling in Random Networks’, Science, 1999. A similar idea had emerged in the 1970s, when physicist Derek de Solla Price analysed academic publications. He’d suggested preferential attachment could explain the extreme variation in the number of citations: a paper was more likely to be cited if it was already highly cited. Source: Price D.D.S., ‘A General Theory of Bibliometric and Other Cumulative Advantage Processes’, Journal of the American Society for Information Science, 1976.
59. Liljeros F. et al., ‘The web of human sexual contacts’, Nature, 2001; de Blasio B. et al., ‘Preferential attachment in sexual networks’, PNAS, 2007.
60. Yorke J.A. et al., ‘Dynamics and control of the transmission of gonorrhea’, Sexually Transmitted Diseases, 1978.
61. May R.M. and Anderson R.M., ‘The Transmission Dynamics of Human Immunodeficiency Virus (hiv)’, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B, 1988.
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63. Counotte M.J. et al., ‘Sexual transmission of Zika virus and other flaviviruses: A living systematic review’, PLOS Medicine, 2018; Folkers K.M., ‘Zika: The Millennials’ S.T.D.?’, New York Times, 20 August 2016.
64. Others independently reached the same conclusion. Sources: Yakob L. et al., ‘Low risk of a sexually-transmitted Zika virus outbreak’, The Lancet Infectious Diseases, 2016; Althaus C.L. and Low N., ‘How Relevant Is Sexual Transmission of Zika Virus?’ PLOS Medicine, 2016.
65. Background on early hiv/aids transmission from: Worobey et al. ‘1970s and “Patient 0” hiv-1 genomes illuminate early hiv/aids history in North America’, Nature, 2016.; McKay R.A., ‘“Patient Zero”: The Absence of a Patient’s View of the Early North American aids Epidemic’, Bulletin of the History of Medicine, 2014.
66. This was before the CDC name changed to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in 1992.
67. McKay R.A. “Patient Zero”: The Absence of a Patient’s View of the Early North American aids Epidemic. Bull Hist Med, 2014.
68. Sapatkin D., ‘aids: The truth about Patient Zero’, The Philadelphia Inquirer, 6 May 2013.
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70. Robert A. et al., ‘Determinants of transmission risk during the late stage of the West African Ebola epidemic’, American Journal of Epidemiology, 2019.
71. Nagel T., ‘Moral Luck’, 1979.
72. Potterat J.J. et al., ‘Gonorrhoea as a Social Disease’, Sexually Transmitted Diseases, 1985.
73. Potterat J.J., Seeking The Positives: A Life Spent on the Cutting Edge of Public Health (Createspace, 2015).
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75. Frith J., ‘Syphilis – Its Early History and Treatment until Penicillin and the Debate on its Origins’, Journal of Military and Veterans’ Health, 2012.
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79. Haldane A., ‘Rethinking the Financial Network’, Bank of England, 28 April 2009.
80. Crampton T., ‘Battling the spread of SARS, Asian nations escalate travel restrictions’, New York Times, 12 April 2003. Although travel restrictions were imposed during the outbreak, such restrictions are likely to have had less effect on containment than measures such as case identification and contact tracing. Indeed, WHO did not recommend restrictions during this period: ‘World Health Organization. Summary of WHO measures related to international travel’, WHO, 24 June 2003.
81. Owens R.E. and Schreft S.L., ‘Identifying Credit Crunches’, Contemporary Economic Policy, 1995.
82. Background and quotes from author interview with Andy Haldane, July 2018.
83. Soramäki K. et al., ‘The topology of interbank payment flows’, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Report, 2006.
84. Gupta S. et al., ‘Networks of sexual contacts: implications for the pattern of spread of hiv’, aids, 1989.
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86. Haldane A., ‘Rethinking the Financial Network’, Bank of England, 28 April 2009.
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90. Arinaminpathy N. et al., ‘Size and complexity in model financial systems’, PNAS, 2012; Caccioli F. et al., ‘Stability analysis of financial contagion due to overlapping portfolios’, Journal of Banking & Finance, 2014; Bardoscia M. et al., ‘Pathways towards instability in financial networks’, Nature Communications, 2017.
91. Haldane A. and May R.M., ‘The birds and the bees, and the big banks’, Financial Times, 20 February 2011.
92. Authers J., ‘In a crisis, sometimes you don’t tell the whole story’, Financial Times, 8 September 2018.
93. Arinaminpathy N. et al., ‘Size and complexity in model financial systems’, PNAS, 2012.
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96. Bank for International Settlements. Statistical release: ‘OTC derivatives statistics at end-June 2018’, 31 October 2018.
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99. Battiston S. et al., ‘The price of complexity in financial networks’, PNAS, 2016.
3. The measure of friendship
1. Background from: Shifman M., ITEP Lectures in Particle Physics, arXiv, 1995.
2. Pais A. J., Robert Oppenheimer: A Life (Oxford University Press, 2007).
3. Goffman W. and Newill V.A., ‘Generalization of epidemic theory: An application to the transmission of ideas’, Nature, 1964. There are some limits to Goffman’s analogy, however.
