The intelligence estimate contained in the plan produced by Falkenhorst’s staff placed the peacetime strength of the Norwegian Army at about 40,000, with a 3,000-strong permanent cadre. Despite recognizing the excellent physical condition of the majority of the population, the army was given only a moderate rating because of the short training period, an over-aged officer corps, the perceived lack of competence among non-commissioned officers (NCOs), and lack of modern equipment. The conclusion was that the Norwegian Army could not offer any resistance worth mentioning against a major power, and units would quickly break when faced with surprise and bold action. German intelligence considered the ships in the navy too old to pose any problems for an attacker. The same was true for the aircraft assigned to the navy and army. They concluded that the coastal forts were unmanned in peacetime and therefore no obstacles as long as the element of surprise was maintained. Generally, the Germans overestimated the strength of the Norwegian military forces (except for the navy) while underestimating their fighting capability. With the exception of their conclusion regarding the coastal forts, however, the shortcomings in the intelligence estimate caused only minor difficulties.
Von Falkenhorst presented his plan for the invasion of Norway to Hitler on February 29. In addition to the increase in force levels, there were several changes to the earlier Krancke plans. These changes made the undertaking more realistic militarily. The increased force levels reflected a more reasonable view of the difficulties confronting the German armed forces in some of the most inhospitable areas on the globe, opposed to an army very familiar with the terrain and climate. It also recognized that the various landings had to be self-sustained until link-ups, a task not easy in difficult terrain with poor internal lines of communications. Finally, it represented a more sober assessment of the threat posed by the British Navy.
Krancke’s group had recognized the importance of bases in northern Denmark, but had suggested that these should be acquired through diplomatic pressure. This was also how OKW viewed the issue, although the threat of military force might have to be used and the forces should therefore be ready. The occupation of Luleå in Sweden and the railroad leading from that city to Narvik was also considered, but the OKW, in the person of Colonel Warlimont, changed these ideas in reviewing a February 26 working paper from von Falkenhorst’s staff on February 27. There was to be no action against Sweden, and the acquisition of bases in Denmark was no longer left to diplomatic pressures. The seizure of bases in Denmark by force was also in accordance with von Falkenhorst’s views since he did not want to leave the outcome of this important part of his operation to the uncertainties of diplomatic negotiations. He requested an additional corps headquarters and two divisions to seize the Jutland Peninsula and possibly the rest of Denmark if the Danes resisted.
Up to now, it was assumed that the attack on Norway would be carried out either just before or after the attack in the West. Jodl now proposed that Weserübung be carried out independent of that offensive. Hitler’s agreement to this proposal was contingent on an examination of the practicability of such a solution.40 The carrying out of the two operations independent of each other involved scaling back on some of the parachute troops the Krancke Staff had considered necessary for the operation.
Hitler approved von Falkenhorst’s plans on February 29 but insisted that the capture of Copenhagen also be included as a mission. Hitler again directed Rosenberg that there should be no attempt to enlist Quisling’s support for the operation “in any form.”41
In the meantime, Raeder continued to feed Hitler a mixture of caution and alarm. On February 20 and again on February 23, Hitler asked Raeder about maintaining the ore traffic from Narvik following the occupation of Norway.42
Raeder answered that the “best thing for maintaining this traffic as well as for the situation in general” was the maintenance of Norwegian neutrality. However, he went on:
… what must not be permitted, as stated earlier, is the occupation of Norway by Britain. That could not be undone; it would entail increased pressure on Sweden, perhaps extension of the war to the Baltic, and cessation of all ore supplies from Sweden.
Raeder stated that the ore traffic from Narvik, which amounted to 2,500,000 to 3,500,000 tons, would have to be suspended for a time since the protection of this traffic through the 800-mile passage along the coast would require large naval and air resources. He advised Hitler that there were alternatives available in case the transport of ore through Norwegian territorial waters proved too risky. Six million tons of the anticipated supply of 10 million tons could be shipped through Luleå during the months that city was not ice-locked. Another three million tons could be stored and/or shipped south by rail to the port of Oxelösund, south of Stockholm. That would leave about one million tons to be shipped through Narvik instead of the much higher tonnage normally associated with that city. He cautioned that not all of this would be achieved in 1940 since it appeared the weather conditions would keep Luleå ice-bound longer than normal. Finally, Raeder pointed out that all supplies would be cut off if the British occupied Norway while a German occupation of Norway would oblige Sweden to meet Germany’s demands.
So far, the army and air force had been kept in relative darkness about the Scandinavian operation. However, this now changed since the actual forces to participate had to be designated. This led to serious inter-service wrangling and to disputes between OKW and the service
