But actually it might not work, because it would miss out something important to Monopoly. It would miss out how you can gang up on people. I don’t know how you’d build that into the model.
After we’ve been playing about two hours, Jennifer has a really unlucky run. She throws a double, which makes her land on Lily’s second most expensive property, and then she has to throw again, and lands on Lily’s most expensive one – which also happens to be the most expensive property on the whole board. And even though it’s not Lily’s fault at all, everyone blames her, and keeps blaming her when Jennifer doesn’t have enough money or property to pay the rent due. So Jennifer’s the first to go out. She pretends to be really upset about it, but actually you can tell she’s only half-pretending, like she’s pretending to pretend, to cover up that she really is a bit pissed.
Eric goes out next, also after landing on one of Lily’s properties, so she gets the stations back. He gets a little bitter too, and even makes a comment about how she must have learned to be so ruthless from her father. Everyone laughs, everyone except Lily that is. She’s now isolated, but still kind-of enjoying herself because she can’t really lose the game now. So then, when it’s James’ go, he thinks for a long while, as he’s holding the dice, but then doesn’t throw them. Instead he suggests that he and I do a merger. We’re the two weakest players left, and he says it’s the only way we stand any chance of surviving. We’ll remove his character, the car, and just keep my boat. He’s right, of course, that is a good tactic, but then there’s a bit of a row over whether it’s legal to do this. Only it’s an old box and the rules book is missing some pages, so we take a vote to decide it, and it’s only Lily who’s against it. So after that James and I are about the same strength as Oscar, with Lily still way out in front. So the only real question is whether James and I, or Oscar, is the next to get unlucky and land on an expensive property. It’s a bit tense for a while, but then we squeak through the toughest bit of the board, and hand the dice to Oscar, and he gets whacked by Lily’s hotel. After that it’s only a matter of time before Oscar is toast.
Three turns later, we knock Oscar out of the game, and take over all his properties, and then finally the balance of the whole game shifts. Now we’re actually stronger than Lily – in terms of statistics and probability, much stronger, although she doesn’t seem to see it. That’s because she’s still got tons of money, but you could run the model from this point and ninety nine times out of a hundred she’d be paying rent to us faster than we are to her, until she’d eventually run out and have to start mortgaging property, and then she’d be finished. Basically, we’re gonna win.
I guess I get a bit excited by this, maybe even a bit overexcited, but it is really late now. Jennifer is curled up nearly asleep on the sofa, with Oscar beside her stroking her hair. And Eric has found some brandy and is swirling it around a giant glass while poking at the embers of the fire. Lily keeps yawning, but it won’t take long now, for us to beat her, I mean.
“How about we call it a draw?” James says, just when I’m about to roll the dice.
“What? No way!” I say, a bit louder than I mean. Lily looks at the board, and I can tell she knows she’s doomed.
“It is nearly two in the morning.” She sounds tired. “Billy – would you accept a draw?”
A lot of me wants to say no, but I can suddenly see what James is doing. He’s trying to make himself look good in front of her. And me look bad. Trouble is, I’m still a bit sucked in.
“How about we just count up our assets, and see who’s got the most?” I suggest, but Lily groans. Between us we’ve got all the property and more money than the bank. It would take a while.
“No, come on Billy. It’s super late,” James says. Then he leans in and goes on very quietly in my ear. “Trust me, she’ll appreciate you giving in.” He gives me a smile.
I look at Lily, and she looks back, a funny expression on her face. So with a bit of an effort I agree.
“OK. Let’s call it a draw.”
Eric and Jennifer give a couple of mock cheers, and James quickly sweeps all the pieces off the board, like I might change my mind. Then he starts trying to call a cab, because everyone’s drunk too much to drive. Only then it’s so late he can’t get one for another half hour. We can hear because he actually calls a cab company, I don’t know why he doesn’t just use the Uber app.
“Why don’t you stay here?” Lily asks, while he’s still on the call, asking if they’re sure they can’t come sooner.
“No – we’ve imposed ourselves enough for one night,” James says, covering the speaker on his cellphone with his hand.
“Don’t be silly.” Lily replies. You know I’ve got plenty of rooms here. Just stay. Then you can drive back in the morning.”
James looks as though he’s going to have one more go at persuading the cab company, but then he changes his mind, and tells them not to bother. So suddenly everyone’s staying.
I feel a bit awkward then, because I’m not suddenly sure if I’m staying. I still have my bike here after all. And then Lily goes upstairs, to make sure the spare rooms have covers on
