and Hong Lung and its escorts comprising the third. Vessels from the South Sea fleet, headquartered at Jhanjiang, rotate with the ships about once per month; however, Hong Lung rotates very seldom. Their base on Spratly Island is very small, but they can land medium-size cargo aircraft there to resupply their vessels. “The Filipinos have substantially increased their presence in the Spratly Islands following the attack on the oil barge. They have sent two of their three frigates into the disputed area and are now patrolling their section vigorously with both sea and air assets. “But despite the naval buildup, the Philippine naval fleet is practically nonexistent, ” Rodgers concluded. “All of their major combatants are old, slow, and unreliable. The crews are generally not well trained and rarely operate more than a day’s cruise away from their home ports.”
“So without the United States forces to back them up, they’re sitting ducks for the Chinese, ” Admiral Cunningham said. “Sir, the Chinese fleet is not that much more advanced than the Philippine fleet, at least the vessels that operate near the Spratly Islands, ” Rodgers said. “Most are small, lightly armed patrol boats. The exception, of course, is the flagship, Hong Lung. It is without question the most capable warship in the entire South China Sea, comparable in performance to U.S. Kidd-class destroyers but faster and lighter. The frigates are heavily armed as well; most have HQ-6 1 SAM missiles, which would be very effective against the Filipino helicopters and may even be capable against the Sea Ray antiship missile. All are comparable in performance to U.S. Oliver Hazard Perryclass frigates, except without helicopter decks or the sophisticated electronics. “The main Chinese offensive thrust would obviously be their overwhelming ground forces-they could land several hundred thousand troops in the Philippines in very short order, ” Rodgers concluded. “Although we generally classify the Chinese Navy as smaller and less capable than ours, their naval forces are very capable of supporting and protecting their ground troops. An amphibious assault on the Philippines by the Chinese would be concluded very quickly, and it would push the necessary threshold of an American counter strike to very high levels-very much along the lines of our DESERT SHIELD deployment, although without the advantage of forward basing.”
“So if the Chinese want to take the Spratly Islands, there’s not much we could do about it, ” General Falmouth summarized. “Sir, at the current force levels in the area, if the Chinese wanted to take the Philippines, there would be little we could do about it…” There was a very animated murmur of voices at that comment. Curtis was the first to raise his voice above the others: “Wait one, Captain. Is this a J-2 assessment or an opinion?”
“It is not a directorate finding, sir, but it is nevertheless a statement of fact, ” Rodgers replied. “If they so decided, it would take the People’s Liberation Army Navy less than a week…”
“Ridiculous…” “They wouldn’t dare…” “Absurd…” “According to the directorate’s preliminary report, sir, ” Rodgers explained, getting their attention, “if the Chinese captured five strategic military bases-the naval facilities at Subic Bay and Zamboanga, the Air Force bases at Cavite and Cebu, and the Army base at Cagayan de Oro-and if they defeated Second Vice President Samar’s militia at Davao, they could secure the entire country.” She paused, then looked directly at them. “Gentlemen, the New Philippine Army is nothing more than a well-equipped police force, not a defense force. They have relied on the United States for its national defense-and obviously would have to again, if the need arose. General Samar’s Commonwealth Defense Force is a welltrained and well-organized guerrilla-fighting force, but they cannot stand up against a massive invasion. The Chinese have a thirty-to-one advantage in all areas. General Wilbur Curtis surveyed his Chiefs of Staff with a look of concern-the information Captain Rodgers had just conveyed had silenced them all. He had heard a lot of bad news during the past six years that he’d chaired the Joint Chiefs. He had learned to quickly decipher between isolated incidents and incidents that had a broader, far more serious impact if left untended. He knew the implications of what Rodgers was saying could be far more serious than any of them had previously thought. “I think we all wanted to believe this was just another skirmish. But with the United States out of the Philippines, there is a large power vacuum in the area. We knew there’d be that danger. Still, I don’t think anyone believed the Chinese would consider moving so soon-if they really are.” Curtis turned to Captain Rodgers again and asked, “Are the Chinese likely to attempt an invasion?”
“Sir, if the Joint Chiefs would like a detailed briefing, I should get Central Intelligence involved, ” Rodgers said. “I had been concentrating on the military aspects and hadn’t prepared a full briefing on the political situation. But J-2 does feel that the Philippines are ripe for the picking.” Curtis waited for additional thoughts from the Joint Chiefs; when there appeared to be no concrete suggestions, he said, “I’d like to review the current OPLANS for dealing with a possible Chinese action in the Philippines, then. I need to know what plans we have built already, and if they need to be updated. Captain Rodgers, I’d like Central Intelligence to get involved, and I’d like Current Operations to draft a response plan that I can present to the Secretary of Defense for his review. Include a Philippines update in the daily briefings, including satellite passes and a rundown on naval activity in the Spratlys and in the Chinese South China Sea fleet. Let’s get on top of this thing and have a plan of action before it threatens to blow up in our faces.” HIGH TECHNOLOGY AEROSPACE WEAPONS CENTER (HAWC) DREAMLAND, NEVADA WEDNESDAY, 17 AUGUST 1994, 0905 HOURS LOCAL The phone line crackled. “Brad! How the hell are you?” Lieutenant General Brad Elliott leaned back in his chair and smiled broadly as he recognized the caller. “I was expecting you to send young Andy Wyatt out here to harass me again, sir, but I’m glad to hear from you. “Can the ‘sir’ stuff with me, you old warhorse, ” Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Wilbur Curtis said over the snaps and crackles in the scrambled phone line. “You know better. Besides, it’s been a long time since we’ve spoken. When are we going to get together?”
“I have a feeling it’ll be soon, my friend. I’ve been getting calls from half the J-staff, a bunch of calls from Space Command-you had to be the next caller. Let me guess-you want some air time on some satellites of mine. “Now how the hell did you know that?”
“Every time I build a new toy, you want it, that’s how I know it.”
“That’s why you’re out there, you stupid bastard. You’re supposed to be developing toys for us to play with, not polishing your three stars. Stop whining.”
“I’m not, believe me.” Elliott chuckled. “I assume you want to use the new Masters NIRTSats, the ones that can downlink radar, infrared, and visual imagery all in one pass in real-time both to the ground stations and aircraft. Right?” “You’re not telepathic are you?” Curtis joked. “They tell me you can receive satellite images on your B-2 bomber as well as your B-52 Megafortress?”
“We flight-test PACER SKY at the Strategic Warfare Center in a couple weeks, ” Elliott said, “but ground tests have gone really well. Let me guess some more: you want pictures of a certain area, but don’t want to use DSP or LACROSSE satellites because you don’t want certain Superpower countries to know you’re interested. Am I close?” “Frightfully close, ” Curtis said. “We’re watching a Chinese naval buildup in the South China Sea. We think they might be getting ready to plug away at either the Spratlys or the Philippines. If we send a DSP or KH-series bird over the area, we risk discovery.”
“The Philippines? You mean the Chinese might try an invasion?”
“Well, let’s hope not, ” Curtis said. “The President is a big fan of President Mikaso’s. We’ve been expecting something like this for years, ever since we realized there was a good possibility we were going to get kicked out of the Philippines-now it might actually happen. We’ve got our pants pretty much down around the ankles as far as Southeast Asia goes right now. What with the buildup in the Persian Gulf and the closing of a bunch of bases overseas, we’ve got zilch out there… “Well, if you need the pictures, you got ‘em, ” Elliott said, running his hand across the top of his hair. “We can transmit the digitized data to J-2, or Jon Masters can set up one of his terminals right on your desk there-providing you don’t keep stretching your secretary out over it all the time.”
“My secretary is a fifty-year-old Marine Corps gunnery sergeant that could grind us both down into little nubs, you old lech.” Curtis laughed. “No, transmit it to J-2 and J-3 out here at the Pentagon soonest. They’ll give you a call and tell you exactly what they want. “I know what you want, sir, ” Elliott said. “Hey, don’t be so sure, big shot, ” Curtis said. “Man, some guys-they get on the fast track, tool around the White House for a few months, and it goes right to their heads. And stop calling me sir. You’d have four stars, too, if you’d climb up out of that black hole you’ve built for yourself out there and join the real world again.”
“What? Leave Dreamland and miss the opportunity for some first-class, four-star abuse? No way.” Elliott gave his old friend a loud laugh and hung up. U.S. AIR FORCE STRATEGIC WARFARE CENTER ELLSWORTH AFB, SOUTH DAKOTA “Room, ten-HUT!” Two hundred men and women in olive drab flight suits moved smartly to their feet as Air Force Brigadier General Calvin Jarrel and his staff entered the auditorium briefing room. The scene could have been right out of Patton except for the ten-foot-square electronic liquid-crystal screen onstage with the Strategic Air Command emblem in full color, showing an armored fist clutching an olive branch and three lightning bolts. Otherwise it looked like the setting for countless other combat-mission briefings from years past-except these
