missiles.” He referred to a wall map of the area as he spoke: “We won’t risk sending any more warships into the Celebes Sea, and the South China Sea region and the seas within the Philippines are too dangerous or shallow. China controls the south, west, and north sides of the Philippines, and they control the South China Sea itself. “However, they do not control the east side of the Philippines, and that’s their weakness. Air strikes from either carrierbased or land-based bombers can come in from the east and strike at Chinese positions “Using Doctor Masters’ computer systems on Guam as well as the reconnaissance data from both the RC- 135 flight and his lightweight satellites, the STRATFOR has developed several strike options designed to achieve an entire range of results. The plans require using the Air Battle Force. Without Ranger or another carrier group available, we simply don’t have the counter-air defensive capability on Guam right now. The Air Battle Force is the only unit we can send on short notice that has the firepower we need. “In short, I think Masters has developed a workable plan for dealing with the Chinese in the south Philippines. We see a pretty good chance of success, even with anticipated Chinese reinforcements in the Celebes. The primary plan is relatively small, controlled, and does not directly involve any carrier battle groups or any Marine Expeditionary Units. Masters’ war-game computer calls the plan Operation WINTER HAMM.R… “Winter?” Vice President Martindale retorted. “You’re going to wait until winter to do something?” The Vice President was not known for being too swift. “The name was simply a random combination of words made by his war-gaming computer, and its use is strictly internal. We can pick a different name for media purposes if you wish “Just let me know what you’re proposing to send over there, ” the President said irritably. “How much equipment, how many men. “The first Air Battle Wing, which is the only one currently organized, ” Curtis replied, “consists of eighteen B-52 bombers, ten F-111G bombers, twenty F-15B, C, and E-model fighters, twelve F-4 fighters, three KC- 10 tankers, six KC- 135 tankers, one E-3C AWACS plane, one RC-135 radar plane, one EC- 135 airborne command post, three C-5 cargo planes, and ten C-141 cargo planes. It totals about two thousand men and women. The current force includes three B-2 stealth bombers as well, which have been training for use with the Air Battle Force. We also have the use of the destroyers Hewitt and Fije and the cruiser Sterett, which were part of the Ranger battle group; the two destroyers carry Tomahawk cruise missiles that can go in ahead of the bombers and take out seaborne radars and large vessels. The Second Air Battle Wing has about twice as many troops and equipment, but can’t be assembled for another thirty to sixty days. “According to our intelligence figures, the Chinese have approximately ten thousand troops in Zamboanga itself, plus another five thousand afloat in the Celebes, ” Curtis continued, “including a full Marine regiment on Mindanao and another afloat. “They have the equivalent of three surface action groups in the Celebes, which is twelve capital warships including submarines in each group. We have mapped out at least twenty different possible surface-to-air missile sites surrounding the Celebes. They have closed off or actively patrol all sea-lanes and all air routes around the southern Philippines for a radius of a thousand miles from Zamboanga. “In addition, they have another twenty thousand troops, thirty more ships, and at least a hundred more aircraft in Puerto Princesa, only five hundred miles away. And this is only a quarter of what they have sent to Luzon: Clark Air Base and Subic Bay Naval Base both have as many Chinese troops and machines there as the United States once had there at the height of the Vietnam War-“
“Wait a minute, ” the President said in complete surprise. “You want to take on fifteen thousand Chinese troops with only two thousand men? That’s it?”
“Sir, numbers don’t make the difference here, ” Curtis ex plained. “The Air Battle Force has the striking power of two, perhaps three aircraft-carrier battle groups, and they have speed and flexibility that the carriers themselves don’t. We have the air power to force the Chinese out of Zamboanga and perhaps out of the south Philippines altogether. We need to activate this unit as soon as possible. I recommend to you that we activate the Air Battle Force and deploy them to Guam. Once they’re there, we can present a more detailed plan to you. “I object to General Curtis characterizing this group as the ultimate solution to this problem, ” Preston said. “I am very much in support of the Air Battle Force concept, but General Curtis is fantasizing, sir.” To Curtis he said, “I’m on your side, Wilbur. I believe in the work you’ve done. The Air Battle Force concept is great, and you’ve implemented it superbly. No one is questioning it or you. But we have to be more realistic or optimistic-we have to be ultraconservative. We’ve been surprised so many times in this conflict that we have to increase our requirements that much more to compose a credible picture.” To the President he said, “We can build a fighting force to take the Philippines, sir, but do you want to pay the price to do it?”
“The Air Battle Force doesn’t fight alone, Thomas, ” Curtis said. “WINTER HAMMER includes the Wisconsin battle group. Six ships, led by the battleship Wisconsin, are at Pearl Harbor ready to go. This group has trained with the Air Battle Force in maritime operations, so when you do decide to send the ABF, they’ll operate well together. In the meantime they can act as an escort for the Ranger when they’re ready to pull out of Indonesia, and they can monitor ship and submarine activity in the Celebes from long range. They also carry Tomahawk cruise missiles, which will be important if we do start hostilities with the Chinese. “The task force also includes the Second Marine Pre-positioning Force based on Mariana Island near Guam. One amphibious assault carrier, one tank landing ship, two escorts, two support ships, twenty helicopters, thirty armored vehicles, five thousand Marines and naval personnel. Half of the force is there now-the other half deployed by air from Hawaii, pick up their ships on Mariana, then embark to their standby positions in the Philippine Sea. It will take at least five days for this group to arrive on station. We send a flight of P-3 Orion sub hunters from Japan or Guam with them until they get some air support from shore or from a carrier group.”
“An invasion force, ” the President said. “You’re recommending a full-scale invasion… A telephone in front of the President buzzed; Cesare picked it up and listened, then replaced it on its cradle. “Press release from the Chinese government, coming in from the wire services, ” he told the President. “Communications is sending down a copy. A few moments later a Secret Service agent on duty arrived and passed a computer printout to Cesare, who remained standing as he read it to the National Security Council: “‘The Chinese government is claiming that an American military strike force was detected and intercepted over the Celebes Sea, ‘ “Cesare read.” ‘The strike force, composed they say of several large subsonic bombers believed to be B-52 bombers from the island of Guam, was escorted by fighters from an aircraft carrier. They claim the Philippine government requested that the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Air Force, some of whom were stationed at military bases in the southern Philippines at the request of the Philippine government, help defend them. “‘The Chinese claim they launched a small defense force of fighters, which managed to drive the bombers away. They claim four Chinese fighters were downed and two American fighters were shot down Cesare read ahead, then added, “‘No mention of the strike against the Ranger, except that American warships also threatened several Filipino coastal towns with bombers and rocket attacks, and that an unarmed Chinese supply ship carrying medicine and food to Filipino refugees in western Mindanao came under attack by an American bomber. They go on to charge that the United States is trying to retake the Philippines by force and blames us again for the nuclear-weapon detonation near Palawan and for threatening the world with thermonuclear chaos.’”
“Those bastards, ” the President grumbled angrily. Then, almost as an afterthought, he turned to Curtis: “We did not have any B-52s involved in this mission over the Celebes Sea, did we, General?”
“Absolutely not, sir. We have no bombers of any size stationed in Diego Garcia, Australia, Japan, or anywhere west of Guam… “Could it have been someone else? The Australians? Brunei? Vietnam? Australia has F-1 11 bombers, right . . .?”
“Unlikely, sir. Our AWACS radar plane picked up no other aircraft in the area. “What about ground forces? It wasn’t a Marine or special operations attack? Anything like that?”
“Nothing authorized by me or any of my staff, sir, ” Curtis said. His mind began running through a multitude of other possibilitiesmercenaries, a rogue combat unit, perhaps even the downed Tomcat crews blowing things up to mask their escape-but he quickly discarded each one. “Sir, it’s an obvious propaganda story. When the CIA investigates the story, they’ll discover it wasn’t a bomber attack-they’ll probably find there was no attack at all. The Chinese released the story because of its propaganda value-they want to be the first to complain, because it shifts blame on the other party.” The President had also discarded all other possibilities, for his face became darker and angrier by the second. “Those bastards, ” he muttered. “They attack our unarmed reconnaissance aircraft and an aircraft carrier, then claim we ye trying to start a war. And even if we admit that the Ranger was attacked by Chinese antiship missiles, it makes us look even worse-we’re going to get blamed for trying to start a war, then criticized for not doing a good job of it. Bastards . . The President fell silent, as did the rest of the Council. This was the turning point, Curtis thought grimly: this was the point at which all presidents facing a conflict had to decide whether to explore more peaceful, less hazardous options, or go ahead with preparing for battle. Like his famous relative, this President wanted to avoid a conflict-he would do almost anything to avoid going to war, or even doing something that might threaten war. It was simply not in his nature. But he had sixty dead sailors and two damaged
