representatives, ” Danahall said-he didn’t want to encourage him with even a veiled “maybe, ” but he didn’t want to indicate that it was out of the question, either. “We’re getting ahead of ourselves here. Let’s get our respective governments to agree on an immediate cease-fire first…” But Tang recognized Danahall’s hesitation and had obviously concluded that the Americans would agree to nothing here. “Why do you support this Moslem Samar?” Tang asked. “He is nothing but a rabble-rouser. He is a definite hindrance to peace, Mr. Secretary. He is not deserving of your country’s support.”
“We support a peaceful solution to this crisis, Mr. Ambassador…”
“I truly hope so, Mr. Secretary, ” Tang said. “It appears to my government, however, that the United States wishes to regain its lost military dominance in the Philippines. You are aligning yourself with a traitor and criminal, blinding your citizens to Samar’s violent and revolutionary past, in an obvious attempt to gain some sort of legitimacy for a military invasion of your own. That is not the way to solve this crisis, sir.”
“There are those who feel that China is trying to exert its influence in the region by the use of force, ” Kellogg said, “and that you will stop at nothing to achieve it. They fear China may use another nuclear weapon to obliterate Samar’s militia. Tang bristled at the mention of the word “nuclear, ” and the Americans knew that the meeting was at an end. He rose to his feet, his hands still folded before him; his face was just as impassive and expressionless as ever. “I believe we have discussed all pertinent topics. With your permission, we will deliver your messages to my government with all speed.”
“Include this message, Mr. Ambassador, ” Danahall said coldly. “If the United States detects any further activity in the Davao Gulf or on Mindanao to suggest that Chinese troops are moving to take the city of Davao, its airport, or the towns around the northern part of the Davao Gulf or delta, the United States will consider that a hostile act against an ally and will respond appropriately.” Danahall and the others rose. “Good day, Mr. Ambassador.” Danahall kept his fingertips on the table, without extending a hand. Tang gave a short bow, as did his interpreter and assistant, and they departed. “God, I must be getting old, ” Danahall said. He dropped into a chair, letting Kellogg take his desk back. “I can’t sell it like I used to.” Kellogg’s outer office phone buzzed. “Yes?”
“Staff meeting in five minutes, sir, ” his secretary said. Kellogg acknowledged the call and hung up. The message was a simple code to let them all know that the Secret Service wanted to come in to sweep the office, hallways, and anterooms for newly planted listening devices before the men began talking about anything of substance. “I wanted to avoid giving the man a damned ultimatum, and that’s exactly what I ended up giving him, ” Danahall said. “Dumb…”
“I’m sorry I mentioned the ‘N’ word, ” Kellogg said. “I guess I’ll never make much of a diplomat.”
“We’re all thinking about it, and he knew it. It had to come out sooner or later.” Danahall paused, then said, “But I think he did leave us a few cracks we can explore-not very big cracks, but at least it’s something to work on. “I hope something happens in the next twenty-four hours, ” Kellogg said grimly as they stood to allow the Secret Service to begin their work, “because otherwise I think the diplomatic side has just run its course.” SANTA CRUZ CHANNEL, NEAR THE CITY OF ZAMBOANGA THE PHILIPPINES SUNDAY, 9 OCTOBER 1994, 0715 HOURS LOCAL aboard the Chinese Liberation Army Navy destroyer ong Lung for the day watch and flag staff began at five A.M. with reveille shortly before sunrise, prayers for those who were so inclined (Admiral Yin Po L’un, and therefore most of his flag staff, were not), a thirty-minute exercise period, cleanup, and breakfast, which usually consisted of chicken or fish soup, rice, tea, and hard candy or caramel squares for the enlisted men. Morning inspection began at six-fifteen, and the reports from each section aboard ship were received by the captain by ten minutes to seven. By seven A.M. the executive officers of each ship of the fleet escorting the Hong Lung reported to the Admiral’s chief of operations, as did the group commanders from the three other naval battle groups in the southern Philippines; Yin’s chief of operations then compiled the morning report for the Admiral for presentation precisely at seven-fifteen. The Admiral first received a synopsis of incoming-messagetraffic from Beijing or South China Sea fleet headquarters in Zhanjiang (important messages would of course have received his immediate attention), then a theater situation briefing and intelligence briefing. Yin’s chief of operations, Captain Sun Ji Guoming, bowed deeply as he began: “Sir, I am pleased to provide you with the following theater briefing summary at this time, updated as of five A.M. local time: “The primary threat to People’s Liberation Army Navy’s forces involved in the Philippines conflict currently is the United States Navy’s aircraft carrier Independence battle group from Japan operating in the Luzon Strait, the U.S. Army Twenty-fifth Infantry Division deployed to Guam, elements of the U.S. Marine Corps Third Marine Amphibious Force mobilized on Okinawa and deployed with the Independence carrier battle group, and the deployment of the Air Force First Air Battle Wing to Andersen Air Force Base on Guam. It is important to point out that these all represent partial deployments of each unit, with approximately thirty to forty percent held in reserve at their home bases. “Major elements of the U.S. Army’s Twenty-fifth Infantry Division were recently relocated to Andersen Air Force Base from Hawaii, with approximately eight thousand troops. It is designed to be a light, quickly deployable force. Our intelligence estimates state, however, that insufficient air or sealift capability exists to move this force from Guam to the Philippines with any speed. However, if they did move this force, we would oppose them with twice the number of infantry troops already in place on Mindanao and four times the number on Luzon and other areas of the Philippines. Elements of the Second Infantry Division in South Korea and Japan have also been mobilized, but we estimate they are still several days from being called into action and at least a week after that to see action in the Philippines. “The Third Marine Division and elements of the First Marine Aircraft Wing have been deployed with the Independence carrier battle group, which is now stationed offshore approximately sixty kilometers northeast of Y’ami Island in the Luzon Strait; this is approximately three hundred and fifty kilometers north of the Philippines. In our estimation, the carrier battle group is not in position to strike into Luzon at this time, al though they can be in position to strike with their aircraft within twenty-four hours and in position to begin ground operations on Luzon within forty-eight to seventy-two hours; this is what is currently driving our threat condition status throughout the People’s Liberation Army. The total American naval force includes approximately sixteen warships, ten support ships, four to six submarines-perhaps more, the exact number is uncertain-twenty fighter aircraft, and fifty fixedwing strike aircraft. “The Fifth Marine Pre-positioning Force from Hawaii has been activated and is deployed in the Philippine Sea with approximately five thousand Marines and forty helicopters, including the MV-22 tilt-rotor transport aircraft that was apparently used in the rescue of Samar and the American pilot on Mindanao. This force can strike in the central Philippines within twenty-four to forty-eight hours’ notice as well. This force includes two landing-ship carriers, four tank-landing carriers, and four support vessels. “The greatest naval threat to our forces in the southern Philippines was the Ranger carrier battle group, ” Sun continued. “The carrier itself is still heavily damaged and considered out of commission; it is being towed to Pearl Harbor, Hawaii, and except for vertical takeoff and landing aircraft is unable to conduct any flight operations.” A rustle of approving voices filled the conference room. “However, the latest report has shown that a destroyer and a guided-missile cruiser from the Ranger group are en route to the Celebes from Indonesia and will be within missile range of some of our ships within the next four to five hours. They are being joined by a six-ship surface action group led by the battleship Wisconsin, en route from Hawaii, which our estimates say will be in position to attack in three to five days; these groups carry land-attack Tomahawk cruise missiles. Our embassy has received word that the Ranger’s support ships intend to conduct search and rescue operations for their downed crew members lost in the air battle last week-“
“They will not be permitted to enter the Celebes Sea, ” Admiral Yin said solemnly. “That I can promise. When Davao has been taken, Group One and Group Two will form to oppose these task forces until additional forces arrive from the mainland.”
“Yes, sir, ” Sun continued. “This leaves the greatest threat to the southern Philippines task force, in the estimation of our intelligence section: the American Air Force. The First Air Battle Wing currently deployed on Guam reportedly has two dozen B-52 heavy bombers, perhaps eight long-range supersonic B-1 and F-1 11 bombers, nearly a dozen medium-range F-15 supersonic bombers, two dozen F-15 and F-16 fighter escorts, and various support aircraft, including reconnaissance, early warning, intelligence, and aerial refueling aircraft. Unverified reports from our patrols in the Philippine Sea say that the Americans might have sent B-2s as well. “This force can strike within three hours with enough standoff weaponry to devastate large sections of our deployed battle groups. They have been flying reconnaissance flights as far west as Talaud Island, within radar range of our warships outside Davao Gulf. One U-2 spy plane was shot down last night by the destroyer Zhangyhum. we estimate the U-2 was able to get pictures of our vessels in Davao Gulf itself.”
“It does not sound like much of a threat to me, Captain, ” Admiral Yin said. “Only thirty-two long-range strike aircraft, most of which are over forty years old? I see no substantial threat.”
