Hood took a moment to look from face to face. There was no need to invite further comment: if anyone had anything to say, they'd say it.
'Strategies, then,' he said. 'Mel, what do the Joint Chiefs of Staff feel we should do?'
'We only spoke briefly,' he said, using two fingers to smooth down his thin mustache. 'But Ernie, Mel, Greg, and I were talking before you arrived at the White House, and we're all of a mind about this. Regardless of whether the bombing was an officially sanctioned act or not, we will seek to contain it through diplomatic channels. The DPRK will be assured of continuing bilateral talks, of increased trade, and of our help in maintaining the current regime.'
'The only caveat,' said blond, youthful-looking CIA Director Greg Kidd, 'is whether economic and political rewards will be enough to deter them from a land grab. South Korea is the Holy Grail to them, particularly to some of the generals, who may not settle for anything less. Taking the South would also save them a fortune: the nuclear weapons program is a serious drain on the economy, and they could ratchet that down if they didn't have to worry about our nuclear presence in the South.'
'So we may have a situation where it makes better fiduciary sense to unleash a conventional war rather than pursue an all-out nuclear arms race.'
'Correct, Paul. Especially when they have to play catch-up against the U.S.'
'If money is such a large part of this,' Hood continued, 'what can we do to put the screws to them financially?'
Av said, 'I've got the Deputy Secretary of State on the phone with Japan right now, but it's a touchy situation. Both Koreas still harbor a great deal of antagonism toward Japan for atrocities during the Second World War, but the North and South are also trading partners with Japan. If they can't stay on the sidelines, they're going to try very hard to maintain normal relations with both sides.'
'Typical,' Mel muttered.
'Understandable,' Av countered. 'The Japanese live in dread of war on the peninsula and the possibility that it will spread.'
Greg Kidd said, 'There's something else to consider. Failing neutrality, it's very likely that Japan will side with the North.'
'Against us?' Hood asked.
'Against us.'
'Typical,' Mel reiterated.
'The financial ties between Japan and the DPRK go deeper than most people realize. The Japanese underworld has been investing drug and gambling profits heavily in the North? we think with the tacit blessings of Tokyo.'
'Why would the government sanction that?' asked Hood.
'Because of their fear that the North Koreans have Nodong 'Scud' missiles capable of crossing the sea. If there were a war, and the North Koreans wanted to play that trump card, the Japanese could take quite a pounding. Despite the great PR, our Patriot missiles took out a very small number of Scuds during the Gulf War. The Japanese will back us so long as they don't get their hair mussed.'
Hood was silent for a moment. It was his job to pull threads and see where they took him, regardless of how bizarre it seemed on the surface. He turned to Deputy Assistant Director McCaskey.
'Darrell, what's the name of the super-nationalists in Japan, the ones that blew up the Mexico City stock exchange when Bush started pushing NAFTA?'
'The Red Sky League.'
'That's the one. As I recall, they oppose close Japanese ties with the U.S.'
'True, though they've always taken immediate credit for anything they do. But you've got a point: this may be a third party operation, maybe arms dealers in the Middle East looking to make a killing selling to the North. I'll put some people on it.'
The ex-FBI agent went to the computer on the other side of the room and began E-mailing his sources in Asia and Europe.
'That's an interesting notion,' Greg Kidd said, 'one I had as well. But arms sales may not be what's behind this. I've got people looking into whether someone is trying to draw us into a war while they go hog wild somewhere else, Iraq or the Haitians, for example. They know the American public would never stand for our soldiers fighting in two wars at the same time. If they can get us waist deep in Korea first, that'll leave them free to fight their own war.'
Hood regarded Bugs Benet's small image. 'Put those in the Options Paper as a footnote under PROBLEM. Whenever the hell Rodgers gets here, he and Martha can hammer out an addendum.' He looked back at the monitor. 'Av, where do the Chinese stand in all this?'
'I spoke with their Foreign Minister just before the meeting. They insist they don't want war on their Manchurian border, but we also know they don't want a unified Korea there either. In time, it would grow into a capitalistic powerhouse that would spur envy and unrest among the Chinese. In the first case, you have refugees streaming into China, and in the second, Chinese trying to sneak into Korea for their bite of the apple.'
'But Beijing is still providing money and military support to the North.'
'A relatively modest amount.'
'And if there's a war, will that increase or stop?'
Av flipped an invisible coin. 'Politically, it could go either way.'
'Unfortunately, we need a concensus on this for the President. Anyone care to commit?'
'What do you say?' Burkow asked.
Hood thought back to Liz Gordon's psych profile and took a leap of faith. 'We assume they'll continue to support the North at present levels— even if war erupts. That would allow them to support their old allies without unduly antagonizing the U.S.'
'That sounds reasonable,' said National Security Adviser Burkow, 'but— if you'll forgive me— I think you're missing an important point. If the Chinese do increase their support, and the President has relied on our paper, we'll all have egg on our faces. If, however, we urge him to move substantial manpower into the Yellow Sea— poised to strike at North Korea, but obviously keeping an eye on China— then he'll be greatly relieved when Beijing does nothing.'
'Unless they perceive our sea power as a threat,' said Defense Secretary Colon. 'Then they might be forced to become involved.'
Hood thought for several seconds. 'I suggest we downplay the China role.'
'I agree,' said Colon. 'I can see almost no circumstance that would cause us to attack supply routes in China, so there's no reason to move guns into their neighborhood.'
Hood was glad, but hardly surprised, that Colon agreed. Hood had never served in the military— he lucked out on the draft lottery in 1969— and one of the first things he learned about officers was how they're typically the last advisers to advocate the use of force. If they did, they wanted to know very clearly and explicitly the exit strategies for their troops.
'I'm with you on that, Ernie,' said Av. 'The Chinese have lived with our military presence in Korea for nearly half a century: they'll look the other way if war erupts and we use it. They don't want to lose favored nation trade status, not with their economy starting to percolate. And anyway, it will suit them to play the role of Great White Father and try to settle this thing for us.'
Hood pushed F6 on the keyboard, then Control/F1 to see the current document. As the transcription had scrolled by Bugs Benet, he had merged the pertinent data with a blank Options Paper file. When the meeting was over, Hood would be able to go over the rough draft of the form, add or detract as necessary, and get it right over to the President.
His quick scan of the document revealed that they had everything they needed— save for military options and the Task Force's opinion as to whether or not they'd be necessary.
'All right,' he said. 'Good work. Now let's hammer out the rest.'
Relying mostly on Defense Secretary Colon and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Parker, and referring to on-file policy papers, the team recommended a measured approach to full battlefield integration: continued slow deployment of troops, tanks, artillery, and Patriots, with nuclear, chemical, and biological depots on alert and ready to move.
