Threat Vector

whichever country they are up against in the region. They won’t let this go to the UN or any international body. They want to fight their arguments one by one.”

“Divide and conquer,” Jack said under his breath.

“Divide and conquer,” agreed Adler.

Jack stood and began pacing around his desk. “What do we know about what is happening inside China?”

This opened the meeting up to the various members of the intelligence services present.

For the next twenty minutes, the national security adviser and the head of the CIA, as well as the director of national intelligence, spoke about covert technical means of espionage. Aircrafts and ships that monitored the country flew and sailed just offshore, satellites raced by overhead, and radio signal interception means were positioned to pick up much Chinese unsecure communication within the country.

It all left Ryan comfortable that America’s electronic eyes were turned toward the Middle Kingdom. Signals intelligence, measurement and signatures intelligence, and electronic intelligence means were well represented in America’s intelligence community’s coverage of China.

But something was missing. Jack said, “I’ve heard a good bit about SIGINT, MASINT, ELINT. What human intelligence assets do we have in the PRC?” The question was, naturally, posed to the head of the CIA.

Director Canfield said, “HUMINT is sadly lacking, sir. I wish I could report we were well positioned inside Zhongnanhai, Mr. President, but, in truth, we have very few human assets in place other than officers working out of the U.S. embassy in Beijing who control relatively low-level agents. There have been quite a few arrests in the past year of our best assets.”

Ryan knew about this. After a ring of agents spying for the U.S. was rolled up in China in the spring, there was a rumor of a mole in the CIA working for the Chinese government, but an internal investigation revealed that to be unlikely.

Ryan asked, “We don’t have nonofficial cover assets in Beijing anymore?”

“No, sir. We have a few NOCs in China, but none in Beijing, and no agents I would classify as highly placed. We have been working tirelessly at getting more agents in the PRC, but our efforts have been met by surprisingly robust counterintelligence operations.”

Robust counterintelligence operations. Ryan said the term to himself. He knew it was a polite way of saying the fucking Chinese had been executing anyone they thought might be spying for the United States.

The President said, “Back in the last go-around with Beijing we had a NOC that gave us a mother lode of intel from inside Politburo meetings.”

Mary Pat Foley nodded. “Who knew that those were the good ol’ days?”

Many of those in the room knew the story, but Ryan explained for those who had either not been in the government at the time or else did not have a need to know. “When Mary Pat was deputy director at CIA, she had an officer who worked for NEC, the computer company. He sold a bugged computer to the office of a minister without portfolio, one of the premier’s closest confidants. At the height of the conflict we were getting nearly daily reports on the leadership’s plans and mind-set. It was a game changer, to say the least.”

Mary Pat said, “And then, a couple months after the war, Minister Fang had to go and have a fatal aneurism while boffing his secretary.”

“Damn inconvenient of him,” agreed Ryan. “The case officer who pulled this off. Chet Nomouri, was it?”

Mary Pat nodded. “That’s correct, Mr. President.”

“He must be a station chief by now.”

CIA Director Jay Canfield shook his head. “He left the Agency a long time back. Last I heard he took a job with a West Coast computer firm.” With a shrug he said, “More money in the private sector.”

POTUS mumbled, “Don’t I know it?”

That earned a burst of laughs from a room that was in need of a light moment.

Secretary of Commerce Barnes said, “Mr. President. I hope we don’t forget what Wei said in his speech. ‘China is open for business.’”

Jack countered, “You mean you hope I don’t forget how much we need China’s business.”

She shrugged apologetically. “Fact is, sir, they own a big chunk of us. And they could call in those chips at any time.”

“And be destroyed,” said Ryan. “They hurt us economically and it only hurts them economically.”

The secretary of commerce came back with a quick retort of her own: “Mutually assured destruction.”

Jack nodded at this but said, “Hey, it was ugly, but you can’t say MAD didn’t work.”

Barnes nodded.

“Let’s finish up with talk about capability,” Ryan said as he turned to his secretary of defense. “If they wish to exert themselves in the South China Sea, what exactly can they do?”

“As you well know, Mr. President, China has added over twenty percent to their military budget every year for nearly two decades. We estimate they spend over two hundred billion a year on their offensive and defensive weaponry, logistics, and manpower.

“China’s Navy has been growing by leaps and bounds. They have thirty destroyers, fifty frigates, seventy-five or so submarines. The Chinese have two hundred ninety ships in their Navy, but not much in the way of a blue- water capability. Not yet, anyway.”

Chairman Obermeyer said, “They have also been focusing on fourth-generation aircraft. They get SU-27s and SU-30s from Russia, and they have their own J-10 fighter, which is made locally although, at this juncture, they are buying their engines from France. Additionally, they have about fifteen SU-33s.”

Burgess said, “But it’s not just their Navy and Air Force; they have expanded in all five war-fighting domains: land, sea, air, space, and cyber. It could be argued, and I would agree with this assessment, that of the five, land has gotten the least attention in the past five years or so.”

“What do we make of that?”

Burgess said, “China does not see enemies attacking its turf, nor does it see large wars with its neighbors. It does see, however, small conflicts with neighbors and large conflicts with major world powers who are too far away to land armies on China’s shores.”

“Especially us,” the President said. It was not a question.

“Exclusively us,” the SecDef replied.

“What about their aircraft carrier?”

The chairman of the Joint Chiefs said, “Mr. President, the Liaoning, China’s carrier, is a source of national pride, but that is all that it is. It is no exaggeration when I say we have three mothballed aircraft carriers, the Ranger, the Constellation, and the Kitty Hawk, that are still in better condition than that old piece of retrofitted junk they bought from Russia.”

Ryan said, “Yes, but despite its bad condition, is that carrier giving them the impression that they have a blue-water Navy? Could that make them dangerous?”

Obermeyer answered, “That might be their assumption, but it is an assumption that we can relieve them of quite easily if this should turn into a shooting war. I don’t want to sound overly boastful, but we could put that carrier on the bottom of the sea on day one.”

Ryan said, “Short of sinking their aircraft carrier, what other options do we have to show that we take their threats seriously?”

PacCom Admiral Jorgensen said, “The North Carolina is in the SCS right now. She’s a Virginia-class fast-attack boat. One of our most stealthy.”

Ryan gave Jorgensen a long look.

The admiral said, “I’m sorry, Mr. President, I did not mean to patronize. You know about Virginia-class boats?”

“Yes, and I know about the North Carolina.”

“Apologies. I briefed your predecessor… and sometimes I had to fill in some details.”

“I get it, Admiral. You were saying about the North Carolina?”