Admiral Nimitz was also present. He started to report formally, but Nimitz told him to relax and take a seat.
Spruance began. “Once upon a time, we didn’t have enough intelligence about Japan. Now we may just have too much. Everybody and his brother now has ideas as to what the Japs are going to do. The ONI is inundating us with contradictory data, which means we have no clear indication or consensus regarding Japanese intentions. So, since you are our resident expert on Japan and since you are just down the hall, what the devil do you think Yamamoto would do, and don’t tell me you haven’t been thinking of it.”
Dane managed a smile. “It’s on everyone’s mind, Admiral, and yes, I have been giving it a lot of thought. I think Yamamoto will hit us with everything he has, and that includes carriers and battleships and anything that floats. The Japanese have been hoping for what they refer to as a decisive battle to knock us out of the war, or at least win a victory for them that will make us think about negotiating. They know they cannot fight a war of attrition with us. They may have sunk more ships and knocked down more planes of ours than we have of theirs, but they cannot replace their losses while we can easily replace ours. Therefore, Yamamoto will see this as a golden opportunity to inflict a major and decisive defeat on us. Frankly, sir, I don’t think he has a choice.”
“A banzai attack?” asked Nimitz.
“Yes, sir, a full-bore hell-for-leather banzai attack, but with ships and not infantry.”
Spruance nodded while Nimitz remained impassive.
Tim continued. “Latest intelligence says they have eight or nine carriers available, although some of them are of the small, escort variety. We want to lure as many of them as possible to the Baja and we might just get all of them. They could hit our decoy fleet with as many as five or six hundred planes. Since they don’t fear a carrier attack from us, I don’t think they’ll leave very many planes behind to cover the carriers.”
“What will they do with their battleships?” Nimitz asked.
Tim took a deep breath. This line of questioning was far more than he’d expected, but he had an answer. “Apparently, and based on what they did at Midway, the Japs like fairly complex battle plans to keep us off balance and confused as to their true intentions. When we were fighting off Midway, a Jap force split off from the main force and bombed Dutch Harbor in Alaska as a distraction. I think they will do the same thing with their battleships this time. I believe they will bombard San Diego and maybe a few other places in an attempt to draw our planes off from protecting what they believe are our carriers. They may even support the bombardment force with planes from their smaller carriers.”
Nimitz stood and Dane started to as well, but was waved back to his seat while the senior admiral paced. “I agree that they will attack with a major portion of their forces, but I disagree as to using their battleships and cruisers as bombardment forces. We believe they will hold those back to protect their carriers from our inevitable counterattack, as well as keeping some aircraft to protect them as well. Or am I thinking too much like an American and not like a Japanese, Commander Dane?” Nimitz laughed. “You don’t have to answer that, Commander.”
Tim was thanked for his thoughts and left. Nimitz looked at his friend and fellow admiral. “He pretty well nailed it, didn’t he?”
Both men were among those who had access to the Ultra intercepts detailing what the Japanese were up to. The fact that the Japanese military codes were largely broken was one of America’s most closely held secrets. As long as the Japanese suspected nothing, the U.S. held a major trump card.
Spruance grimaced. “Of course, knowing what the Japs are going to do and doing something about it are two different things. At Midway we knew what they were up to and still lost.”
“We cannot let them know or even suspect a thing,” said Nimitz. “But I am concerned about such a large concentration of carriers and planes, as well as their plans to bombard cities. Dane was only half right. Yes, they will shell San Diego, but Los Angeles will be hit as well. Morally, we must warn the people, but if we do that and the cities are evacuated, the information will get back to the Japs. We cannot be certain that all enemy spies have been gathered up, or that some consular staffer from a neutral country might spill the beans about his being sent away to safety, with the result being that the info is somehow relayed to Japan. We must do nothing until the last minute, even though many innocent people will die as a result.”
Both men thought for a moment about the rumors they’d heard regarding the German bombing of Coventry, England. Rumors that said that Churchill knew about it through their codebreaking efforts, but had to let it go forward without interruption lest the Nazis figure out that their mail was being read. As a result, more than a thousand British civilians had died. Both men wondered if their silence would be worth it. Would it help end the war? Only time would tell.
Spruance sighed. “Radar will give us several hours warning of the approach of their surface fleet.”
Radar towers, like those that lined the English Channel, had been constructed on high ground overlooking the Baja, San Diego, Los Angeles, and other cities. They could spot ships and planes up to two hundred miles out. That would mean a number of hours for battleships, but less than an hour for airplanes.
“There will be chaos when the sirens sound,” Spruance said. “There still aren’t anywhere near enough bomb shelters, and I don’t know what can protect anyone against a fourteen-inch shell. People will literally try to run for the hills and there will be a stampede. People will die. God, I hope this is worth it. We will do everything we can, but we simply cannot let the Japs stop the attack on the decoys. We will not have enough ships and planes to halt them.”
“The Japs will probably focus on attacking military installations, but who knows where the shells will land. I know it’s futile, but I wish we hadn’t sent the Midway survivors, the cruisers and destroyers, to Pearl Harbor instead of here.”
Nimitz looked out a window where he could see the bay. Two heavy cruisers and four light ones, along with a handful of destroyers, were all that the navy possessed at San Diego. There were other ships in San Francisco and Puget Sound, but they would have been inadequate in the first place, and likely would have been sunk if they’d attempted to move them south to San Diego.
“We play the cards we were dealt,” Nimitz said grimly. “But if they actually do hit us here with all the planes that their carriers have, we are in trouble.”
“Then we’d better start shuffling planes down here from up north as soon as possible,” Spruance added.
“Are we ready for that?” Nimitz asked.
“Do we have a choice?”
Down the hall, Merchant asked Tim how it went. “I gave them my frank opinion and said that the Japs were going to hit us with everything, and including the kitchen sink. Only thing, I don’t think they quite believed it. Nimitz asked if I thought he was thinking too much like an American and not like a Jap. He told me not to answer that, so my career’s intact, although, if he’d pushed, that’s exactly what I would have said. Unless we start thinking like Yamamoto, he’s going to keep beating us.”
Lieutenant Harry Hogg, USAAF, had been called Piggy since the day he was born. Mom said he’d been a chubby baby and the name had stuck, even though Hogg was a slight and slender young man of twenty-three. When he was younger, he thought he’d like to kill dear old mom, but then realized that the nickname was inevitable given his last name.
Hogg stood by his twin-tailed P38 fighter and looked around at the Mexican terrain. The land was barren and rugged, but, somehow, engineers had managed to lay out a number of airfields scratched into the hard surfce of the earth. His landing had been scary as his plane used a lot of runway and this dirt field had all of about six inches leeway. Taking off was going to be a joy as well. He and the other P38 pilots were safe for the moment and damned glad to be down on mother Earth.
Some people he knew went on vacation to Mexico. This, however, was not going to be a vacation. An NCO had directed him to a series of tents where there were cots set up for the pilots and mechanics. There was food, and it was neither plentiful nor good. When asked how long they’d be at this abomination, Piggy and his fellow pilots were told they’d be there as long as the Army Air Force or the United States Navy said they should. That was another thing. Army and navy pilots were intermingled and more and more planes of all types were coming in, including P39, P40, and P47 army fighters and navy Wildcats. Hogg had seen many others fly overhead and on to other fields that were out of sight. Quietly, they were told they shouldn’t be in Mexico for more than a few days. Sure, they all thought. The word “soon” to the military could mean an eternity.
Everyone felt that something big was up, but nobody was quite certain what. There were what appeared to be a couple of carriers out in the bay, but they looked way too small, even misshapen.
Fuel had been brought in, but not all that much of it. To Piggy, this meant that the facility truly was
