“I think,” Busby said slowly, trying to collect the cascade of ideas into some semblance of order, “that if they want us to be around when explosions occur in the Spratly area, our first priority should be to not be there. We need to not cooperate with whatever it is they’re trying to achieve. And we need to look very closely at the sequence of events and determine exactly how they are using our own forces and assets against us. The Flankers, the sorties from Vietnam — those are distractions, Admiral, intended to draw us away from what is really happening. Same thing with the submarines. Look at the assumptions we’re already starting to make. I’ve heard anything from guesses about advance stealth technology on their aircraft to land-launched Tomahawk-style strike missiles to Particle beams from satellites. All of those things are well outside of what we believe the Chinese are capable of. And they’re all intended to make China look a good deal more potent militarily than they are.”
“But why the flights out of Vietnam?” Tombstone asked. “Follow your train of thought on that.”
“If I may, Admiral — what does the fact that China is flying out of Vietnam suggest to you?”
“Makes me wonder how close the Chinese and the Vietnamese are on this thing,” Tombstone responded. “I’m thinking it may set back normalization of relations with Vietnam for quite a while.”
“And who would know if the Chinese are launching any sort Of strike from Vietnam?” Busby pressed.
“The Vietnamese,” CAG said suddenly. “They’d know. They have to see the aircraft going out and coming back in. If they leave with weapons on the wings and return clean, Vietnam would know that China was behind the attacks.”
“And yet, just the opposite seems to be happening, doesn’t it?” Busby answered. “We see the Flankers come out without weapons, right? So the Vietnamese-“
“Know that the Chinese aren’t responsible,” Tombstone finished. “And we end up with Vietnam appearing to us to be supporting China just when we’re normalizing relations.”
“And as a corollary, Vietnam’s gotta be convinced that we’re responsible, because they know China’s not,” CAG concluded. “So far, it makes sense to me. And the final objective is what?”
“To make sure the South China Sea remains China’s lake. To completely eliminate any political support from any littoral nation. You know what that means.” Busby glanced around the room. Yes, they did know — he could see it in their faces.
“No land bases, no logistics support. We’ve already lost the Philippines. If China’s plan works, we might lose support in Singapore. And with China assuming control over Hong Kong, the primary money center for the Far East, she suddenly becomes a lot more important to these nations than the United States,” Tombstone said.
“And there you go,” Busby concluded. “To gain regional dominance, all it costs them is some of their own troops. At last count, China’s population was almost two billion. If there’s one thing that China does have, it’s people.”
“So where does that leave us?” Tombstone asked. “What do you see as the primary threat axis?”
“If I could speculate, Admiral?”
“Go ahead.”
“It seems at least possible,” Lab Rat said, “that China has some form of long-range strike platform. It’s not the aircraft it has deployed to Vietnam — we’ve seen too much evidence that they’re coming out clean. That leaves a ship, a submarine, or a land-launched platform. I doubt it’s a ship. We’d have detected her on SUCAP. A submarine is a strong candidate, given the stealthy nature of the attacks, and the fact that we’ve seen one sub launch a cruise missile against us already.”
“Oh, great. Submarines,” CAG said, disgusted.
“Probably at least one. But just because we’ve found one answer doesn’t mean that we’ve found all the answers. There are problems with the submarine answer, too. Subs are hard to talk to on a regular schedule. I don’t think that they’d be the choice for coordinating attacks with our patrols around the area. Too much uncertainty, too difficult to make sure the attack happened when we were around. I think we have to at least consider — and plan for — the possibility that China has a long-range land attack missile. If they do, it’s got to be launched from their mainland. No way that they’d take that technology to Vietnam and run the risk of losing it. Besides, that would blow their plan as far as Vietnam is concerned. Then their neighbors would know that China is behind all the attacks, and they’d have no reason to be suspicious of us.”
“So we end up with a missile threat from the north, from China’s mainland. And an air threat to the east, from the Chinese aircraft stationed in Vietnam. As well as a submarine cruise missile threat to the ships from just about anywhere.”
“I think so,” Lab Rat agreed. “And we may have some information leaks as well, although I’m not certain about that. But the safe thing to do is to keep any plans as tightly compartmented as possible, to minimize the risks.”
“I can just hear Killington now,” COS said thoughtfully. “Based on these assumptions, you’re probably going to want to send him north. He’s going to want to know why, and you’re not going to be able to tell him.”
“He’ll live with it,” Tombstone said shortly. “Be good practice for him, obeying orders for a while.”
“I’ll rough out an air plan for you immediately, Admiral,” CAG said. “We’ll be putting some extra fighters on alert, as well as some ASW assets. Your flight crews are going to be pulling some long hours sitting alert.”
“It builds character,” Tombstone said. “At least that’s what my first CO told me when I bitched about it.”
CAG chuckled. “I can think of at least one young aviator who could use some of that, sir.”
“Gentlemen,” Tombstone said, standing up and picking up his notepad, “thank you for your time. Commander Busby, I think we have some insight into the operational scenario. Good work. Now let’s see what we can do to turn the tables on these bastards!
CHAPTER 15
The Vietnamese lieutenant stared out at the still-dark horizon, trying to see through the early morning fog. Timing was critical to this mission. It was still twenty minutes until sunrise, enough time to maneuver into position near the tiny rock in the middle of the ocean. Ideally, the sun would just be rising as the occupation team deployed.
He looked back toward the fantail, at the small group of men and equipment standing around in the predawn gloom. He pitied them. While life aboard the Soviet Zhuk-class patrol boat was certainly not luxurious, it beat the hell out of where those men were headed.
The Vietnamese naval force was an odd mixture of discarded Soviet and American small vessels. The lieutenant’s Zhuk was one of the most modern additions, transferred to Vietnam in 1989 from the Soviet Union. The twelve-man crew was one of the more motivated crews he’d served with. The boat was twenty-four feet long, and could cruise through the seas at thirty-four knots. While it certainly wasn’t the largest naval vessel to ply the South China Sea, it was more than large enough for this mission.
He wished he could say the same about the occupation team. The stack of boxes and survival equipment that would be placed on the rock with them looked pitifully small. He’d been told that there were enough concentrated rations in one box to feed the five men for two weeks, long enough for the resupply crew to get to them. Beside that box, a tarpaulin to provide shelter from the sun was rolled into a compact cylinder. A few blankets, some rudimentary radio equipment, and a water-distilling pump completed the loadout. And the Stingers — the all- important Stingers. It was the last item that completely blew the team’s cover story of establishing a fishing camp.
Better you than me, he thought. The battle for ownership of the Spratly Islands, according to his superiors, required establishing a presence on the desolate rocks that composed the South China Sea chain. This outpost would be left on a patch of barren igneous rock that was barely bigger than his Zhuk. For not the first time, the Vietnamese navy lieutenant gave thanks that he’d joined the right branch of the military. While navy units might ferry the occupation teams to the rocks, standing presence duty in the South China Sea was solely the province of
