CHAPTER 16
“You’re certain this will work?” Tombstone asked the Intelligence Officer.
“If it were certain, it wouldn’t be intelligence,” Lab Rat replied wryly. “High probability, Admiral, based on the patterns we’ve observed, but no guarantees.”
Tombstone sighed. “No guarantees if we don’t do something, either.”
“Exactly. At least this plan takes advantage of what we do know about the Chinese.”
“It sounds too simple.”
“Simple doesn’t mean easy. Timing is everything on this.” Lab Rat held up his hand, ticking the points off on his fingers. “We know that the attacks are occurring while we have aircraft in the area. Coincidental? Probably not. Presumably, someone intends to make it look like the U.S. is responsible, especially since it’s happened more than once. That leads me to the second point.” Lab Rat held up the next finger.
“How do they know when we’re in the area? Couple of possibilities, offhand. First, satellites. A possibility, especially if they have long-range Tomahawks on alert the entire time, but not a high probability, since the reaction time is so fast. Remember, though, that our satellite coverage may be of intense interest to them. This would be important to them because a satellite might catch the missile in the process of launching, which would completely blow their cover. So I’m looking at our satellite coverage, not theirs.
“The second possibility is surveillance of some sort. But we haven’t detected surface ships or aircraft at the time of every incident. Maybe the submarine, but I doubt it. It’s too slow and has too low a horizon. Third — and my favorite possibility — reports by the sites themselves of visuals on American aircraft. Now that makes sense!”
“I’m not sure I agree completely,” Tombstone said reflectively. “There’s always the possibility that they just understand how carrier flight ops work, and are taking their chances that we’ll fly by to look at their rocks during cycle times.”
“A possibility, of course, but one that leaves too much open to chance. First, what if we’d changed flight cycle time, for whatever reason? Fouled deck, you name it — a thousand things can throw a flight schedule off. Second, even if they know when we’re launching aircraft, they can’t know exactly where the fighters are headed. We don’t even know that, other than they’re headed for CAP stations with a few surveillance checkpoints along the way. No, too much to chance. Remember, there are three reported incidents. Every one took place when our assets were in the area. More importantly, none took place when we weren’t there.”
“Sounds like the best way to avoid more incidents is to pack up and go home,” Tombstone said wearily. “That’s not an option, by the way.”
“But there’s more to this problem, Admiral. Remember, we’re just up to the second step — the timing. The next factor to consider is the attacking platform.”
“I thought we’d agreed that it was long-range cruise missiles,” Batman said. “That’s the pretext I used for getting the JAST birds out here, anyway.”
“That’s one possibility. Remember, there’s nothing that says all three attacks were done by the same means. Additionally, you know how unpredictable atmospheric conditions are out here. Could be we just thought we saw low-fliers, just like the E-2 picked up those ghosts the other day. Some unexplained circumstances, a few radar ghosts — hell, we’re letting the fog of war do all the Chinese’s work for them, inventing explanations and causes.”
“I personally think it’s possible that the Chinese have developed their own version of the Tomahawk,” Lab Rat continued. “Except, perhaps, in one instance.”
“Which one?” Batman asked.
“The attack on Mischief Reef. That was too short notice. Building a Tomahawk package takes time.”
“Could have done it with something like a Harpoon and fly-to points,” Kos said reflectively.
“Of course. But now we’re back to a mobile platform. Except for the submarine, no evidence that a platform that could carry something like a Harpoon was even around.”
“Okay, so what do you think it was?” Batman asked, exasperated.
“If I can, Captain, I’d like to hold that thought for just one more moment. I think you’ll see why shortly,” Lab Rat said boldly.
Tombstone waved at Lab Rat to continue with the briefing.
“Finally, the last attack on the Mischief Reef base camp,” Lab Rat continued. “Again, executed just as our aircraft were overhead. No indications of anything inbound, no surface platforms in the area, and a massive detonation. One survivor, who reports that he’d seen our aircraft executing a fly-over. Surely he wasn’t the only one to see it. Picture the sequence, gentlemen. An aircraft flies over, ten seconds later the camp explodes.” Lab Rat fell silent and watched their faces.
“Oh, my god,” Tombstone said softly. “They did it them selves, didn’t they?”
Lab Rat nodded. “I think so.”
“The Chinese blew up their own bases to make us look bad?” Batman asked. “What’s so radical about that — I thought that’s just what we’ve been discussing.”
“It’s more than that, Batman,” Tombstone said, his voice taking on a grim note. “More than just intentionally attacking your own people. Think about the timing. There was nothing in the area and no sign of a submarine- launched weapon. I think La-the commander has the right idea.”
“Deception is the key to all Asian warfare planning,” Lab Rat said. “It’s fundamental to the way they make war, and they plan for it in ways that we can’t even begin to imagine. There’s only one way for that base camp to have been destroyed so quickly. It was command-destructed. Somewhere ashore — or maybe on the sub, I don’t know for sure — someone has a transmitter that can send a signal to each Spratly Island. Somewhere in the foundation for the larger camps is a self-destruct package. It’s not under the on-scene commander’s control — he may not even know it’s there. But when the mainland gets word from the base camp that American fighters are overhead, there’s a way to make it look like we’re the cause of the destruction.”
“Assuming that’s how they’re doing it, how do we use the information?” Tombstone asked, looking at the intelligence officer with new respect. He would make it a point, he thought, to make sure that the man got a better call sign. Whatever the reason for earning the name Lab Rat, he’d just outgrown it.
“That part’s a little tricky,” Lab Rat admitted. “The first option is trying to expose what China’s done. Unfortunately, we’re lacking a little technicality called proof.”
“Sure would be nice, though. At least the other nations would start listening to some sense instead of blindly following China’s lead,” CAG said.
“Not necessarily,” Lab Rat disagreed. “The concept of losing face is of enormous importance here. The other nations probably already know that China’s behind this. They may not know the details, but they’ll suspect something. If we simply call China’s bluff, we put them in a difficult position. Remember, after we leave the South China Sea, they’re still going to have to deal with the giant to their north. And an unhappy, embarrassed China is going to be a more difficult neighbor. Second, we’ll lose face with the smaller nations — not for having been tricked initially, but for not arriving at a solution that turns the situation to our advantage and allows China to save some degree of face.”
“Who the hell cares whether China’s embarrassed!” Batman exploded.
“We have to,” Tombstone said grimly. “Different answers to problems at this level, Batman. Things were a lot simpler when it was simply a matter of ordnance on target and time on top. You’ll see, the first time you’re sitting in this chair instead of behind a desk.”
“Understood, Admiral,” Batman said formally.
“As the commander has explained, we lose face if we can’t play by the rules of this game. So what we need to do is turn this situation to our own advantage, without getting our people killed and without forcing the issues. That about it, Commander?”
“Yes, Admiral, I’d say that’s an accurate summation.”
“How?” Tombstone said simply.
