4.
Jan Leighley and Jonathan Nagler, “Unions, Voter Turnout, and Class Bias in the U.S. Electorate, 1964– 2000,”
5.
The actual process of estimation is considerably more sophisticated than what I’ve described, but is similar in spirit. See McCarty, Poole, and Rosenthal,
6.
See John R. Petrocik, “Reformulating the Party Coalitions: The ‘Christian Democratic’ Republicans” (paper prepared for Center for Research in Society and Politics, Aug. 1, 1998), table 2.
5 THE SIXTIES: A TROUBLED PROSPERITY
1.
“Economic Mobility: Is the American Dream Alive and Well?” (Pew Economic Mobility Project, May 2007).
2.
Levy and Temin, “Inequality and Institutions.”
3.
An online version is available at http://www.wadsworth.com/history _d/templates/student_ resources/0534607411/sources /old/ch29/29.4. nixon.html.
4.
Steven Levitt, “Understanding Why Crime Fell in the 1990s,”
5.
This phenomenon was first noted by John F. Kain, “Housing Segregation, Negro Employment, and Metropolitan Decentralization.”
6.
Ronald Reagan,
7.
In 1970, after a decade of rapid growth, AFDC payments totaled $4.9 billion, compared with $39 billion in payments to Social Security beneficiaries. Data from the Social Security Administration, http://www.ssa.gov/policy/ docs/statcomps/supplement /2005/9g.html.
8.
Ibid.
9.
10.
Mickey Kaus, “The Ending of the Black Underclass,” Slate.com, Nov. 3, 1999. http://slate.com/id/1003938/.
11.
Harris Poll, January 1971, http://www.ropercenter.uconn.edu/ data_access/ipoll/ ipoll.html.
12.
Speech at http://www.watergate.info/nixon/silent-majority-speech-1969.shtml.
13.
Philip Klinkner and Thomas Schaller, “A Regional Analysis of the 2006 Election,”
6 MOVEMENT CONSERVATISM
1.
Editorial,
2.
William F. Buckley, “Yes, and Many Thanks, But Now the War Is Over,”
