The Dead Hand

statements and compensation for families of the victims. Reagan reaffirmed existing sanctions on Aeroflot, and nonrenewal of a transportation treaty.

19 Gates, p. 290.

20 Volkogonov, p. 375.

21 Yevgeny Chazov, Health and Power (Moscow: Novosti, 1992), p. 184.

22 Christopher Andrew and Oleg Gordievsky, Comrade Kryuchkov’s Instructions: Top Secret Files on KGB Foreign Operations, 1975–1985 (Stanford: Stanford University Press, 1991), pp. 594– 595.

23 Oleg Gordievsky, Next Stop Execution: The Autobiography of Oleg Gordievsky (London: Macmillan, 1995), p. 272.

24 Andrew and Gordievsky, p. 594.

25 Dobrynin, pp. 537–538.

26 Geoffrey Howe, Conflict of Loyalty (New York: St. Martin’s Press, 1994), pp. 349–350.

27 Margaret Thatcher, The Downing Street Years(New York: HarperCollins, 1993), p.324.

28 Thatcher, p. 451.

29 Archie Brown, The Gorbachev Factor (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1996), pp.77–78.

30 Elizabeth Teague, “War Scare in the USSR,” in Soviet/East European Survey: Selected Research and Analysis from Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, Vojtech Mastny, ed. (Durham: Duke University Press, 1985), pp. 71–76.

31 Dusko Doder, “Soviets Prepare People for Crisis in U.S. Ties,” Washington Post, Oct. 30, 1983, p. A34.

32 Savranskaya, interview, May 13, 2005.

33 Reagan diary, Oct. 10, 1983.

34 Edmund Morris, Dutch: A Memoir of Ronald Reagan (New York: Random House, 1999), pp. 498–499.

35 “Memorandum of conversation,” Oct. 11, 1983, RRPL. Also see Jack F. Matlock Jr., Autopsy on an Empire: The American Ambassador’s Account of the Collapse of the Soviet Union (New York: Random House, 1995), p. 83.

36 Desmond Ball, “Development of the SIOP, 1960–1983,” in Strategic Nuclear Targeting, pp. 79–83.

37 Reagan diary, Nov. 18, 1983.

38 Reagan, An American Life, p. 586.

39 Report of the DOD Commission on Beirut International Airport Terrorist Act, Oct. 23, 1983, issued Dec. 20, 1983.

40 The invasion was dubbed “Operation Urgent Fury” by the U.S. military, and it brought a public relations boost to the White House, but it was a small operation against weak foes. Eighteen U.S. troops were killed and 86 wounded.

41 Gates recalled that Casey briefed Reagan on the Soviet fears of nuclear war on December 22 based on separate information from Soviet military intelligence sources. Gates, p. 272.

42 McFarlane, interview, April 25, 2005. Gates concluded, “A genuine belief had taken root within the leadership of the [Warsaw] Pact that a NATO preemptive strike was possible.” Gates, p. 272.

43 Matlock, “Memorandum for Robert C. McFarlane,” Oct. 28, 1983, RRPL, Matlock Files, Box 90888.

44 Andrew and Gordievsky, p. 600.

45 McFarlane, interview, April 25, 2005.

46 Andrew and Gordievsky, Comrade Kryuchkov’s Instructions, p. 85.

47 Andrew and Gordievsky, p. 600.

48 Shultz, p. 376.

49 Draft Presidential Letter to Andropov, Dec. 19, 1983, RRPL, National Security Council files, Head of State, USSR, Andropov, Box 38.

50 Michael Getler, “Speech Is Less Combative; Positive Tone May Be Change of Tune,” Washington Post, p. 1, Jan. 17, 1984.

51 Fritz W. Ermarth, “Observations on the ‘War Scare’ of 1983 from an Intelligence Perch,” Parallel History Project on NATO and the Warsaw Pact, November 6, 2003. See www.php.isn.ethz.ch.

52 “Implications of Recent Soviet Military-Political Activities,” Special National Intelligence Estimate SNIE 11 -10-84/JX, May 18, 1984.

53 Ermarth later said that what animated Soviet behavior “was not fear of an imminent military confrontation but worry that Soviet economic and technological weaknesses and Reagan policies were turning the ‘correlation of forces’ against them on a historic scale.” See “Observations.”

54 Ermarth acknowledged gaps in his knowledge about U.S. naval activity. “We had an abundance of intelligence on the Red side, but our ability to assess it was hampered by lack of knowledge about potentially threatening Blue activities we knew or suspected were going on. This is a classic difficulty and danger for intelligence, particularly at the national level. Our leaders in intelligence and defense must strive to overcome it, particularly in confrontational situations.” Ermarth, “Observations.”

55 Ermarth, interview, Feb. 20, 2006.

56 Gates, p. 273.

57 The review was conducted by the President’s Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board under President George H. W. Bush. According to Ermarth, who was allowed to review the document, it concluded that the 1984 SNIE did not take seriously enough the Soviet fears of nuclear war. Also see Don Oberdorfer, From the Cold War to a New Era (Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press, 1998), p. 67.

CHAPTER 4: THE GERM NIGHTMARE

1 Ken Alibek with Stephen Handelman, Biohazard: The Chilling True Story of the Largest Covert Biological Weapons Program in the World—Told from Inside by the Man Who Ran It (New York: Random House, 1999), p. 20.

2 Igor V. Domaradsky and Wendy Orent, Biowarrior: Inside the Soviet/Russian Biological Warfare Machine (New York: Prometheus Books, 2003), p. 157. Domaradsky published his memoir in Russian in 1995 as Perevertish, Rasskaz ‘Neudobnogo’ Cheloveka, Moscow, 1995, or approximately, Turncoat, Story of an “Inconvenient” Man. The Domaradsky-Orent translation includes additional elaboration.

3 Popov interviews, Jan. 21, 2005, March 31, 2005, May 16, 2005 (with Taissia Popova), and Feb. 22, 2007, as well as correspondence.

4 According to Michael Gait, who sponsored Popov at the laboratory, in 1980 the task was how to make short sections of DNA “using our new chemical methods of solid phase, machine-aided synthesis that I and a few others in the world had developed. These short sections were being used in several applications in molecular biology including whole gene synthesis. They indeed wanted this technology in Russia and Sergei was sent to learn it.” Gait, communication with author, July 8, 2008.

5 The other organization was the M. M. Shemyakin Institute of Bioorganic Chemistry of the Russian Academy of Sciences, named for its founder. At the time of the interferon work, it was under the direction of Shemyakin’s successor, Yuri Ovchinnikov, who became a founder and architect of the secret biological weapons program. In 1992, the institute was renamed the M. M. Shemyakin and Yu. A. Ovchinnikov Institute of Bioorganic Chemistry.

6 Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Department of Health and Human Services, “Smallpox