Rivlin, 'In Vino Veritas.'
143
Ibid.
144
Hal Stern, 'On the Probability of Winning a Football Game', American Statistician 45, no. 3 (August 1991): 179-82.
145
The graph is from Index Funds Advisors, 'Index Funds.com: Take the Risk Capacity Survey', http://www.indexfunds3.com/step3page2.php, where it is credited to Walter Good and Roy Hermansen, Index Your Way to Investment Success (New York: New York Institute of Finance, 1997). The performance of 300 mutual fund managers was tabulated for ten years (1987-1996), based on the Morningstar Principia database
146
Polling Report, 'President Bush-Overall Job Rating', http://pollingreport.com/BushJob.htm.
147
'Poll: Bush Apparently Gets Modest Bounce', CNN, September 8, 2004, http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/09/06/presidential.poll/index.html.
148
'Harold von Braunhut', Telegraph, December 23, 2003; http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jhtml? xml=/news/2003/12/24/db2403.xml.
149
James J. Fogarty, 'Why Is Expert Opinion on Wine Valueless?' (discussion paper 02.17, Department of Economics, University of Western Australia, Perth, 2001)
150
Stigler, The History of Statistics, p. 143.
151
Holland, What Are the Chances? p. 51.
152
Это лишь приблизительные расчеты, в основе которых лежат последние данные по американской статистике. Смотрите: U.S. Social Security Administration, 'Actuarial Publications: Period Life Table.' Наиболее свежие данные находятся по адресу: http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/STATS/table4c6.html.
153
Immanuel Kant, quoted in Theodore Porter, The Rise of Statistical Thinking: 1820-1900 (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1988), p. 51.
154
U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, 'Licensed Drivers, Vehicle Registrations and Resident Population', http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/policy/ohim/hs03/htm/dlchrt.htm.
155
U.S. Department of Transportation, Research and Innovative Technology Administration, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, 'Motor Vehicle Safety Data', http://www.bts.gov/publications/national_transportation_statistics/2002/html/table_02_17.html.
156
'The Domesday Book', History Magazine, October/November 2001.
