157
For Graunt's story, see Hacking, The Emergence of Probability, pp. 103-9; David, Gods, Games and Gambling, pp. 98-109; and Newman, The World of Mathematics, 3:1416-18.
158
Hacking, The Emergence of Probability, p. 102.
159
Theodore Porter, The Rise of Statistical Thinking, p. 19.
160
For Graunt's original table, see Hacking, The Emergence of Probability, p. 108. For the current data, see World Health Organization, 'Life Tables for WHO Member States', http://www.who.int/whosis/database/life_tables/life_tables.cfm. The figures quoted were taken from abridged tables and rounded.
161
Ian Hacking, The Taming of Chance (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1990), p. vii.
162
H. A. David, 'First (?) Occurrence of Common Terms in Statistics and Probability', in Annotated Readings in the History of Statistics, ed. H. A. David and A.W.F. Edwards (New York: Springer, 2001), appendix В and pp. 219- 28.
163
Noah Webster, American Dictionary of the English language (1828; — facsimile of the 1st ed., Chesapeake, Va.: Foundation for American Christian Education, 1967).
164
The material on Quetelet is drawn mainly from Stigler, The History of Statistics, pp. 161-220; Stephen Stigler, Statistics on the Table: The History of Statistical Concepts and Methods (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1999), pp. 51-66; and Theodore Porter, The Rise of Statistical Thinking, pp. 100-9.
165
Louis Menand, The Metaphysical Club (New York: Farrar, Straus & Giroux, 2001), p. 187.
166
Holland, What Are the Chances? pp. 41-42.
167
David Yermack, 'Good Timing: CEO Stock Option Awards and Company News Announcements', Journal of Finance 52, no. 2 (June 1997): 449-76; and Erik Lie, 'On the Timing of CEO Stock Option Awards', Management Science 51, no. 5 (May 2005): 802-12. See also Charles Forelle and James Bandler, 'The Perfect Payday-Some CEOs Reap Millions by Landing Stock Options When They Are Most Valuable: Luck-or Something Else?' Wall Street Journal, March 18, 2006.
168
Justin Wolfers, 'Point Shaving: Corruption in NCAA Basketball', American Economic Review 96, no. 2 (May 2006): 279-83.
169
Stern, 'On the Probability of Winning a Football Game.'
170
David Leonhardt, 'Sad Suspicions about Scores in Basketball', New York Times, March 8, 2006.
