200
John R. Nofsinger, Investment Blunders of the Rich and Famous — and What You Can Learn from Them (Upper Saddle River, N.J.: Prentice Hall, Financial Times, 2002), p. 62.
201
Hemang Desai and Prem C. Jain, 'An Analysis of the Recommendations of the 'Superstar' Money Managers at Barron's Annual Roundtable', Journal of Finance 50, no. 4 (September 1995): 1257-73.
202
Jess Beltz and Robert Jennings, 'Wall $treet Week with Rukeyser's Recommendations: Trading Activity and Performance', Review of Financial Economics 6, no. 1 (1997): 15-27; and Robert A. Pari, 'Wall $treet Week Recommendations: Yes or No?' Journal of Portfolio Management 14, no. 1 (1987): 74-76.
203
Andrew Metrick, 'Performance Evaluation with Transactions Data: The Stock Selection of Investment Newsletters, Journal of Finance 54, no. 5 (October 1999): 1743-75; and 'The Equity Performance of Investment Newsletters' (discussion paper no. 1805, Harvard Institute of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass., November 1997).
204
James J. Choi, David Laibson, and Brigitte Madrian, 'Why Does the Law of One Price Fail? An Experiment on Index Mutual Funds' (working paper no. W12261, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Mass., May 4, 2006).
205
Leonard Koppett, 'Carrying Statistics to Extremes', Sporting News, February 11, 1978.
206
By some definitions, Koppett's system would be judged to have failed in 1970; by others, to have passed. See CHANCE News 13.04, April 18, 2004-June 7, 2004, http://www.dartmouth.edu/~chance/chance_news/recent_news/chance_news_13.04.html.
207
As touted on the Legg Mason Capital Management Web site, http://www.leggmasoncapmgmt.com/awards.htm.
208
Lisa Gibbs, 'Miller: He Did It Again', CNNMoney, January 11, 2004, http://money.cnn.com/2004/01/07/funds/ultimateguide_billmiller_0204.
209
Thomas R. Gilovich, Robert Vallone, and Amos Tversky, 'The Hot Hand in Basketball: On the Misperception of Random Sequences', Cognitive Psychology 17, no. 3 (July 1985): 295-314.
210
Purcell's research is discussed in Gould, 'The Streak of Streaks.'
211
Mark Hulbert, 'Not All Stocks Are Created Equal', www.MarketWatch.com, January 18, 2005, accessed March 2005 (site now discontinued).
212
Kunal Kapoor, 'A Look at Who's Chasing Bill Miller's Streak', Morningstar, December 30, 2004, http://www.morningstar.com.
213
Michael Mauboussin and Kristen Bartholdson, 'On Streaks: Perception, Probability, and Skill', Consilient
