Kearns credits the “Madness of Mr. Crouch” episode with tipping Dumbledore off, but this is the main point on which I disagree with her essay. The only thing Harry says to Dumbledore is, “[Mr. Crouch] Said he wants to warn you. . . said he’s done something terrible . . . he mentioned his son . . . and Bertha Jorkins . . . and—and Voldemort. . . something about Voldemort getting stronger. . . .” (GF558)
Trying to look at it from the outsider’s perspective, the bit about his son seems to be the least significant portion of this sentence. He’s done something terrible in connection to Bertha Jorkins, whose disappearance Dumbledore already assumed was linked to Voldemort getting stronger. . . what could the “something terrible” be? Mentioning his son, alongside mentions of Percy Weasley, could very well be part of his raving, or a late-onset guilt trip, as Hermione points out. There’s a missing step in the logical leap from this to Crouch Jr. being alive and the culprit.
Dumbledore has not yet put it all together, as evidenced by what we see in the Pensieve—the closest we ever get to seeing Dumbledore’s mind at work. If Dumbledore knew Crouch Jr. was the suspect at this point, why would he be reviewing the trials of Karkaroff and Bagman? He already knows they’re acting shifty, but what could he hope to glean about Crouch Jr. from reliving their trials?
Dumbledore’s choice of memories to peruse is highly significant. He is looking for people who have grudges against Crouch Sr. (because it’s obvious there is now foul play at work). First on the list would be Death Eaters he put on trial. His chief suspects are Karkaroff and Bagman, but neither seems like the guy. Dumbledore may be intrigued enough about the mention of Crouch’s son to view the trial of Barty Crouch Jr., or he may just be doing a thorough job, but if he knew Junior was the culprit, he’d have no reason to watch the other trials. He is also still trying to figure out how Bertha and Crouch Sr. are connected, since he is examining memories of her.
Dumbledore is also unsure about another key piece of information: whether Crouch Jr. even was a Death Eater. Prior to Crouch Jr.’s boastful confession under the influence of Veritaserum, no one really knew whether he was a Death Eater or whether he had “been in the wrong place at the wrong time.” (GF528) Sirius has “no idea” whether Crouch Jr. is a Death Eater (GF528).
When Crouch Jr. was captured, he “can’t have been more than nineteen,” (GF528) so he would have been a fairly new recruit, without much of a Death Eater reputation. Crouch Jr. certainly put on a convincing performance of innocence during his trial. Voldemort made sure the Death Eaters didn’t know each other, so no Death Eater can provide negative confirmation of Crouch Jr. being one of them. In any event, when Dumbledore is puzzling this out, he is not on speaking terms with the one Death Eater he could ordinarily ask about these things: Snape. All this combines to make Dumbledore unsure whether Crouch Jr. even is a Death Eater, so it would be a huge leap from that to “Junior faked his death and is the evil mastermind at work.”
A possibility that we should not discount is that this is as far as Dumbledore ever got in figuring it out. In this scenario, Dumbledore did not know about Crouch Jr. until the moment the Polyjuice wore off, and he called for Winky because he knew the Crouch family would be somehow involved. It’s a plausible alternative to what I believe actually happened, so it bears mentioning.
However, assuming Dumbledore is as resourceful and determined as we know him to be, there is still one avenue of inquiry he can pursue to find out what was going on with Mr. Crouch. Even if that would not tie in to whatever else was going on, once Dumbledore knew something was very fishy with Crouch Sr. (and had exhausted all other lines of inquiry like watching Pensieve memories), Dumbledore would have gone to Winky and used Legilimency on her. This is likely because we know of at least one other instance when Dumbledore used Legilimency on a house-elf to get crucial information: Kreacher at the end of Book 5 (OP832).
So if this happened, what would Dumbledore glean from this? He would know nothing about Crouch Jr. impersonating Moody or working for Voldemort, because Winky was fired before that happened. At most, this would tell Dumbledore that Crouch Jr. was still alive. He would also learn of the Quidditch World Cup episode and of how Bertha’s memory was damaged. But none of these things answer any of the questions that Dumbledore needs answered: who put Harry’s name in the Goblet, and how, and why.
If one reads Dumbledore’s interrogation of Crouch Jr. under Veritaserum assuming he knows all that Winky’s mind had to offer, parts of it seem superfluous. Dumbledore could have expedited the questioning about Barty’s faked death and the World Cup episode if he knew it all already. However, Dumbledore is going through the whole story more for Harry’s benefit than for his own and is being thorough for that purpose. (And if I may break the fourth wall, we should also consider that Rowling is going through it for the readers’ benefit.)
I think it probable that Dumbledore did read Winky’s mind to glean all she knew, otherwise he just wasn’t as thorough as we’ve come to expect from him. And he is definitely curious about what Crouch Jr. is up to now that his father’s gone crazy and disappeared. But it would then take quite an impressive logical leap to assume that Crouch Jr. is the mystery Death Eater involved in Voldemort’s scheme. If anyone is capable of making that leap, it’s Dumbledore. . . but it’s more likely that until the very last moment, Crouch Jr. is just an additional suspect on the list alongside Bagman and Karkaroff.
When Fake Moody whisks
