So, the main question: why a plot that is so needlessly elaborate, where so much can (and nearly does) go wrong?
Because Voldemort fears Dumbledore. Lupin says, “the very last person [Voldemort] wanted alerted to his return the moment he got back was Dumbledore,” (OP92) and I think that is the answer to all of this. If Harry suddenly disappears one night, Dumbledore will immediately suspect Voldemort’s involvement, and will use all of his considerable resources and ingenuity to find out what’s going on. Then Voldemort, with no more than a score of Death Eaters, will have Dumbledore after him.
However, if Harry disappears during the Third Triwizard Task, it can be disguised as an unfortunate accident. That is why the Triwizard Cup was left a Portkey twice over: once to bring Harry to Voldemort, a second time to send him back to Hogwarts. Crouch Jr. intended for Harry’s corpse to return to Hogwarts after Voldemort killed him.
Note that no one can see what’s happening inside the maze. But everyone knows there are lots of deadly things in there (acromantulas, sphinxes, etc.). So assume Harry’s dead body and the Triwizard Cup arrive on the Hogwarts grounds. The immediate conclusion would be that he was mauled to death by a sphinx or something, managing to grab the Cup at the very last second. For added effect, Voldemort can have Nagini bite Harry’s corpse to give the illusion of death by magical creature. To be sure, Dumbledore would be suspicious, but he wouldn’t know for certain that Voldemort was responsible. Then Voldemort can run amok in the world, recruiting and wreaking havoc while no one is the wiser.
It was just Voldemort’s bad luck that neither of the first two tasks was conducive to such a ruse. The first task, the dragons, was done in full view of everyone, so Harry could not be spirited away unobtrusively. The second task was unseen by spectators, but there was nothing in the lake that would actually kill Harry. If his dead body floated to the surface, there will have been no question of foul play. But the third task was perfect—invisible and deadly, so Voldemort had to bide his time until June.
Why didn’t Dumbledore pick up on this? I think because he did not realize how much of a priority secrecy was to Voldemort. Voldemort is a master of publicity and propaganda, because he realizes how effective those tools are. He fashioned himself a new name, then made the entire world afraid to speak it. He created a logo, the Dark Mark, that he burned into his followers’ skin, and that he cast into the sky to signify murder. “Just picture coming home and finding the Dark Mark hovering over your house, and knowing what you’re about to find inside. . . .” Mr. Weasley winced. “Everyone’s worst fear. . . the very worst. . .” (GF142) This is the kind of branding that most companies would kill for. So Dumbledore does not realize how badly Voldemort wants to preserve his anonymity here, and therefore can’t figure out what Voldemort’s planning.
It’s also worth noting that, contrary to all precedent, Voldemort actually wants Harry alive for his revival potion. Considering all the energy expounded to kill Harry in previous years, this further trips up Dumbledore.
Give Voldemort this: he is an absolute master of theatricality. It is one of his most important tools in maintaining control of the Death Eaters. And it also serves to foil his plans time and time again. Voldemort hits every Evil Overlord cliché head-on: he loves to hear himself talk, and he always plays with his food, to his detriment.26
While there is much to recommend using Harry Potter for his resurrection, I believe that Voldemort’s primary purpose was to make a point to the Death Eaters. At the end of Goblet of Fire, Voldemort is essentially giving a show to the Death Eaters; he stops just short of a big musical number. He uses Harry’s blood to show that if there is anything special about Harry, Voldemort now has it. He drones extensively about his awesome evil plots, showing off how he pulled off such a cool thing right under Dumbledore’s nose. And then, to show the Death Eaters once and for all who’s boss, he lets Harry attempt to duel him. He tortures Harry, forces Harry to bow to him, and does everything in his power to prove to the Death Eaters how powerless Harry is against him. This is all smart image control by Voldemort, up until the part where Harry gets away thanks to an unforeseen Priori Incantatem.
However, give Voldemort this: his plan in Goblet of Fire is a masterstroke. He deals with two issues at once: regaining the Death Eaters’ respect and leaving Dumbledore none the wiser. While he rather fails at the second point, it is due to “luck and chance, those wreckers of all but the best-laid plans.” (DH7) But imagine, if you will, that Priori Incantatem had not occurred. The Death Eaters are in awe of Voldemort, Dumbledore and the Ministry know nothing and let Voldemort run amok. When Voldemort does finally come out into the open, there is no Harry Potter to be a figurehead for the rebellion.
We will see how much Voldemort values his anonymity in the Ministry’s eyes based on his behavior in Order of the Phoenix. Because although Harry manages to warn Dumbledore in time, Voldemort is aided in keeping his cover by a rather odd pair of people: an unscrupulous journalist and a career politician who loves his job too much. And this will leave Dumbledore fighting battles on multiple fronts for the next year.
Chapter 5:
Albus Dumbledore and the
Order of the Phoenix
The Sluggish Memory
Before we get into what Dumbledore
