- Crouch Jr.—Still a definite possibility.
- Bertha Jorkins under the Imperius Curse—Dumbledore does not know that she is dead, as Harry only tells him that Crouch Sr. mentioned her. However, pulling off this kind of ruse for a year while under the Imperius Curse would be stretching the boundaries of plausibility.
- Yet another Death Eater returned from the dead—Dumbledore has now discovered that two Death Eaters thought dead are very much alive, all in the span of a year; he has to be wondering if there are yet more out there.
Of the three options, the simplest and likeliest one is Crouch Jr. Dumbledore tends to trust his guesses, because his “guesses have usually been good.” (DH710) And that is how, at the very last possible moment, Dumbledore figures out that Crouch Jr. is masquerading as Moody and calls for Winky to be present at his unmasking. It’s a testament to both Crouch Jr.’s skills and Voldemort’s scheming that it took Dumbledore this long.
Lord Voldemort’s Propaganda
There’s a reason I’m writing a book about Dumbledore’s modus operandi when it comes to plotting against Voldemort, and not the other way around. Between Voldemort’s Evil Overlord Syndrome making him constantly expound upon his evil plots, and Dumbledore’s propensity to psychoanalyze Voldemort, we have a very good idea of how Voldemort’s mind works. In addition, Voldemort’s plots are usually very straightforward compared to Dumbledore’s. He wants something (the Sorcerer’s Stone, the prophecy, Dumbledore’s death), so he gets someone to go after it for him (Quirrell, Harry, Draco and Snape) through a mixture of coercion and deceit.
Now that Voldemort is back, Dumbledore’s plans will depend a lot on what he does. To fully understand Dumbledore, we must briefly examine how Voldemort operates. And this proves to be the antithesis of how Dumbledore operates. Voldemort is constantly proclaiming to everyone how awesome his plans are, how all-powerful and clever he is, and how Harry Potter does not stand a chance against him. Everyone always knows what his plans are and what he’ll do.
Contrast this with Dumbledore, whose plans no one knows. Dumbledore does not seek recognition for his triumphs, he commands respect without demanding it—Dobby is allowed to call him “a barmy old codger.” (GF380) In fact, no one but Harry, Ron, and Hermione even knows the extent of what Dumbledore has done to combat Voldemort. This is why I have spent years unraveling Dumbledore’s plans: one of their main features is that no one knows what they are. That is why, with the exception of the events of Goblet of Fire, he manages to stay two steps ahead of Voldemort. Voldemort, through his theatrics, becomes predictable; Dumbledore remains unknowable.
However, in Goblet of Fire, Dumbledore fails to stay ahead of Voldemort. So I would like to zero in on Voldemort’s most elaborate scheme: the year-long plot in Goblet of Fire that culminated in his resurrection. This is the first and last time that Voldemort is executing his plans with Dumbledore being none the wiser. As Hagrid says, “Worried! I dunno when I seen Dumbledore more worried than he’s bin lately.” (GF563)
Why is it this plan that tripped up Dumbledore? I believe it’s for the same reason readers so often roll their eyes at Goblet of Fire: from a logical standpoint, Voldemort’s plan seems ludicrous. To recap Voldemort’s plan:
- Have Barty Crouch Jr. pretend to be Alastor Moody at Hogwarts, right under Dumbledore’s nose. Have him keep this up for an entire year, teaching the children and everything.
- Imposter Moody will manage to Confund the Goblet of Fire into accepting Harry Potter as a Triwizard Champion.
- Imposter Moody will surreptitiously assist Harry in the Tournament, getting a fourteen-year-old through tasks that challenge the most prodigious seventeen-year-olds, while ensuring Crouch’s hand in it cannot be seen.
After all that, after a year as a Hogwarts professor and the entire Triwizard Tournament, Imposter Moody will transform the Triwizard Cup into a Portkey to spirit Harry away from Hogwarts, setting the stage for Voldemort’s resurrection.
This all begs the question: why not have Imposter Moody give Harry a Portkey on the first day of classes in the form of a textbook or something, and bypass all the tournament shenanigans altogether?
A brief aside about Portkeys:
The mechanics of Portkeys are rather confusing, based on some conflicting evidence that stemmed from plot necessity. As near as I can figure, anyone can make Portkeys out of Hogwarts, but only Dumbledore—or the current headmaster at any given point—can create Portkeys into Hogwarts. This checks out with Dumbledore creating a Portkey for Harry at the end of Order of the Phoenix and does not contradict all the magical protections surrounding Hogwarts. After all, that would be a pretty big gaping hole in Hogwarts’s defenses if anyone could Portkey in.
This leads to the conclusion that the Triwizard Cup was made into a Portkey by Dumbledore to take whoever touched it back onto Hogwarts grounds. That’s further supported by the logistics of the Third Task, since any other way for the champions to emerge from the maze would feel distinctly anticlimactic. When Crouch Jr. says he “turned it into a Portkey,” (GF691), that’s probably shorthand for adding an intermediate stop to the existing Portkey. The Portkey was always going to go back to Hogwarts grounds, but Crouch made sure that first it
