[198] Pole flashed a slide This slide is from a keynote speech by Pole at Predicted Analytics World, New York, October 20, 2009. It is no longer available online. Additionally, see Andrew Pole, “Challenges of Incremental Sales Modeling in Direct Marketing.”
[199] buying different brands of beer It’s difficult to make specific correlations between types of life changes and specific products. So, while we know that people who move or get divorced will change their buying patterns, we don’t know that divorce always influences beer, or that a new home always influences cereal purchases. But the general trend holds. Alan Andreasen, “Life Status Changes and Changes in Consumer Preferences and Satisfaction,” Journal of Consumer Research 11, no. 3 (1984): 784-94. For more on this topic, see E. Lee, A. Mathur, and G. Moschis, “A Longitudinal Study of the Effects of Life Status Changes on Changes in Consumer Preferences,” Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science 36, no. 2 (2007): 234-46; L. Euehun, A. Mathur, and G. Moschis, “Life Events and Brand Preferences Changes,” Journal of Consumer Behavior 3, no. 2 (2003): 129-41.
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[201] before a child’s first birthday “Parents Spend ?5,000 on Newborn Baby Before Its First Birthday,” Daily Mail, September 20, 2010.
[202] $36.3 billion a year Brooks Barnes, “Disney Looking into Cradle for Customers,” The New York Times, February 6, 2011.
[203] Jenny Ward, a twenty-three-year-old The names in this paragraph are pseudonyms, used to illustrate the types of customers Target’s models can detect. These are not real shoppers.
[204] profile their buying habits “McDonald’s, CBS, Mazda, and Microsoft Sued for ‘History Sniffing,’ ” Forbes.com January 3, 2011.
[205] ferret out their mailing addresses Terry Baynes, “California Ruling Sets Off More Credit Card Suits,” Reuters, February 16, 2011.
[206] forecasted if a tune was likely to succeed A. Elberse, J. Eliashbert, and J. Villanueva, “Polyphonic HMI: Mixing Music with Math,” Harvard Business Review, August 24, 2005.
[207] thirty-seven times throughout the month My thanks to Adam Foster, director of data services, Nielsen BDS.
