Die Kunst des klaren Denkens

»The stock market is a no-called-strike game. You don’t have to swing at everything – you can wait for your pitch. The problem when you’re a money manager is that your fans keep yelling, ›Swing, you bum!‹« (Buffett, Warren: Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting 1999)

»It takes character to sit there with all that cash and do nothing. I didn’t get to where I am by going after mediocre opportunities.« (Munger, Charlie: Poor Charlie’s Almanack, Third Edition, Donning, 2008, S. 61)

»Charlie realizes that it is difficult to find something that is really good. So, if you say ›No‹ ninety percent of the time, you’re not missing much in the world.« (ebenda S. 99)

»There are huge advantages for an individual to get into a position where you make a few great investments and just sit on your ass: You’re paying less to brokers. You’re listening to less nonsense.« (ebenda S. 209)

The Omission Bias

Baron, Jonathan: Thinking and Deciding, Cambridge University Press, 1988, 1994, 2000.

Asch, D. A. et al.: »Omission bias and pertussis vaccination«, Medical Decision Making 14, 1994, S. 118–124.

Baron, Jonathan; Ritov, Ilana: »Omission bias, individual differences, and normality«, Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 94, 2004, S. 74–85.

Siehe auch: »Der Unterlassungseffekt«, Kapitel aus der Dissertation: Schweizer, Mark: Kognitive Tauschungen vor Gericht, Zurich, 2005.

The Self-Serving Bias

Schlenker, B. R.; Miller, R. S.: »Egocentrism in groups: Self-serving biases or logical information processing?«, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 35, 1977, S. 755–764.

Miller, D. T.; Ross, M.: »Self-serving biases in the attribution of causality: Fact or fiction?«, Psychological Bulletin 82, 1975, S. 213–225.

Arkin, R. M.; Maruyama, G. M.: »Attribution, affect and college exam performance«, Journal of Educational Psychology 71, 1979, S. 85–93.

Baumeister, Roy F.: The Cultural Animal: Human Nature, Meaning, and Social Life, Oxford University Press, 2005, S. 215 ff.

»Of course you also want to get the self-serving bias out of your mental routines. Thinking that what’s good for you is good for the wider civilization, and rationalizing foolish or evil conduct, based on your subconscious tendency to serve yourself, is a terrible way to think.« (Munger, Charles T.: Poor Charlie’s Almanack, Third Edition, Donning, 2008, S. 432)

Der Versuch mit den Schulnoten, siehe: Johnson, Joel T. et al.: »The ›Barnum effect‹ revisited: Cognitive and motivational factors in the acceptance of personality descriptions«, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 49 (5), November 1985, S. 1378–1391.

Zu den Schulnoten, siehe auch das Video: Ariely, Dan: Why we think it’s OK to cheat and steal (sometimes) auf TED.com.

Ross, M.; Sicoly, F.: »Egocentric biases in availability and attribution«, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 37, 1979, S. 322–336.

The Hedonic Treadmill

Taleb, Nassim Nicholas: The Black Swan, Random House, 2007, S. 91.

Gilbert, Daniel T. et al.: »Immune neglect: A source of durability bias in affective forecasting«, Journal ofPersonality and Social Psychology 75 (3), 1998, S. 617–638.

Gilbert, Daniel T.; Ebert, Jane E. J.: »Decisions and Revisions: The Affective Forecasting of Changeable Outcomes«, Journal of Personality and Social Psychology 82 (4), 2002, S. 503–514.

Gilbert, Daniel T.: Stumbling on happiness, Alfred A. Knopf, 2006.

Gilbert, Daniel T.: Why are we happy?,(Video) auf TED.com.

Frey, Bruno S.; Stutzer, Alois: Happiness and Economics: How the Economy and Institutions Affect Human Well-Being, Princeton, 2001.

Die Studie zu den Brustimplantaten hat es – dem Thema entsprechend – in Windeseile in viele Lifestyle- Publikationen geschafft. Die Stichprobe (112 Frauen) ist allerdings recht bescheiden. Siehe: Young, V. L.; Nemecek, J. R., Nemecek, D. A.: »The efficacy of breast augmentation: breast size increase, patient satisfaction, and psychological effects«, Plastic and Reconstructive Surgery 94 (7), Dezember 1994, S. 958–969.

The Self-Selection Bias

»A more deliberate form of self selection bias often occurs in measuring the performance of investment managers. Typically, a number of funds are set up that are initially incubated: kept closed to the public until they have a track record. Those that are successful are marketed to the public, while those that are not successful remain in incubation until they are. In addition, persistently unsuccessful funds (whether in an incubator or not) are often closed, creating survivorship bias. This is all the more effective because of the tendency of investors to pick funds from the top of the league tables regardless of the performance of the manager’s other funds.« (Zitiert aus Moneyterms.co.uk)

»It is not uncommon for someone watching a tennis game on television to be bombarded by advertisements for funds that did (until that minute) outperform other by some percentage over some period. But, again, why would anybody advertise if he didn’t happen to outperform the market? There is a high probability of the investment coming to you if its success is caused entirely by randomness. This phenomenon is what economists and insurance people call adverse selection.« (Taleb, Nassim Nicholas: Fooled by Randomness, Second Edition, Random House, 2008, S. 158)

»Gibt es in der Natur vielleicht Dinge und Ereignisse, von denen wir nie etwas erfahren, weil sie unser Gehirn nicht bewaltigt?« (Vollmer, Gerhard: Evolutionare Erkenntnistheorie, Hirzel, 2002, S. 135)

»Der Erkenntnisapparat muss nicht perfekt sein. Dass er nicht ideal sein muss, zeigt auch der Vergleich mit Tieren, die ja auch uberleben, obwohl ihr Erkenntnisapparat weit weniger gut arbeitet.« (ebenda S. 137)

The Association Bias

Die Geschichte mit dem Gasleck siehe: Baumeister, Roy F.: The Cultural Animal: Human Nature, Meaning, and Social Life, Oxford University Press, 2005, S. 280.

Buffett will die schlechten Nachrichten horen, und zwar ohne Umschweife. Die guten Meldungen konnen warten. Siehe: Munger, Charles T.: Poor Charlie’s Almanack, Third Edition, Donning, 2008, S. 472.

»Don’t shoot the messenger« kommt erstmals bei Shakespeare vor, und zwar in Henry IV, Teil 2, 1598.

In vielen Staaten, unter anderem im Neuengland des 18. Jahrhunderts, gab es den Job als »Town Crier« (Stadtschreier). Seine Aufgabe bestand darin, oftmals schlechte Nachrichten zu verbreiten – zum Beispiel Steuererhohungen. Um dem »Kill-the-messenger-Syndrom« Herr zu werden, verabschiedeten die Stadte Gesetze (vermutlich wieder vom Stadtschreier verlesen), die Verletzungen oder Beschimpfungen des Stadtschreiers mit der hochsten Strafe ahndeten. Heute sind wir nicht mehr so zivilisiert. Wir stecken die lautesten »Schreier« kurzum ins Gefangnis – siehe Julian Assange, Grunder von Wikileaks.

Das Anfangergluck

Taleb, Nassim Nicholas: The Black Swan, Random House, 2007, S. 109.

Die kognitive Dissonanz

Plous, Scott: The Psychology of Judgment and Decision Making, McGraw-Hill, 1993, S. 22 ff.

Das Klassiker-Paper zur kognitiven Dissonanz: Festinger, Leon; Carlsmith, James M.: »Cognitive Consequences of Forced Compliance«, Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology 58, 1959.

Elster, Jon: Sour Grapes: Studies in the Subversion of Rationality, Cambridge University Press, 1983, S. 123 ff.

Eine der Starken des Investors George Soros ist laut Taleb die komplette Absenz von kognitiver Dissonanz. Soros kann seine Meinung von einer Sekunde auf die andere andern – ohne das geringste Gefuhl von Peinlichkeit.